Men's College Hoops Spotlight: Sizing Up the 5-Team Big Ten Title Race

Beginning Jan. 27, when then-No. 5 Nebraska traveled to the Crisler Center for a date with then-No. 3 Michigan, the Big Ten ushered in a wave of high-leverage games that pitted the league’s best teams against each other at the midway point of the conference schedule. 

First, the Wolverines upended the previously unbeaten Cornhuskers, whose roster that night was diminished through injury. Then, Michigan scored its second victory over a top-10 opponent in the span of four days with an emphatic, emotional rivalry win against then-No. 7 Michigan State at the Breslin Center. And finally, on Sunday afternoon, white-hot Illinois, previously ranked ninth, conquered a raucous atmosphere at Pinnacle Bank Arena to hand Nebraska a second consecutive loss and extend its own winning run to 11, the seventh-longest streak in the country. 

What amounted to an in-season round-robin began to establish a more legitimate pecking order in the Big Ten after teams entered the weekend at 9-1 in league play. Michigan and Illinois, who have combined for just one loss since Nov. 28, are playing like favorites entering the back half of their respective conference schedules. That leaves Nebraska and Michigan State jockeying for position behind them, with both teams seeking to address the issues that cost them in marquee moments last week. And then there’s Purdue, winners of the regular-season title in 2023 and 2024, lurking in the background following an uncharacteristic three-game skid. 

Our newest Men's College Hoops Spotlight sizes up the Big Ten race with five weeks remaining in the regular season: 

Big Ten title race: The frontrunners

Michigan

• Record: 20-1 overall, 10-1 Big Ten
• Ratings: No. 2 on KenPom, No. 1 on Torvik, No. 1 on EvanMiya.com
• Best conference wins: USC, Washington, Nebraska, Michigan State
• Worst conference losses: Wisconsin
• Remaining SOS: 24th nationally, 6th Big Ten

Even though Michigan’s win over Nebraska came against an injury-depleted squad — the Cornhuskers were without two of their three leading scorers in Rienk Mast (flu) and Braden Frager (knee) — a subsequent victory over rival Michigan State was particularly convincing, especially considering the Wolverines hadn’t won in East Lansing since 2018. They led for more than 35 minutes against the Spartans and withstood a ferocious second-half comeback before pulling away in the closing stages. 

Head coach Dusty May’s group will now enter its game against Penn State on Thursday night as the most balanced team in the conference, according to KenPom, ranking ninth nationally in offensive efficiency and first in defensive efficiency. The latter is a spot Michigan reclaimed from the Spartans following last week’s head-to-head matchup in which it limited Michigan State to 37% shooting overall and 17% from 3-point range. But the Wolverines have arguably the most difficult finishing stretch of anyone in the Big Ten with remaining games against No. 12 Purdue, No. 4 Duke (non-conference), No. 5 Illinois, Iowa and the rematch with No. 10 Michigan State, among others. So while it’s unlikely that Michigan can navigate that stretch unscathed — especially with games against Duke, Purdue and Illinois all on the road — May’s team has already racked up enough wins to remain in the thick of this year’s conference championship race.

Coach quote: "I think we proved that we can still win in different ways," May said in a news conference following his team’s win over Michigan State on Friday. "We haven’t been in two games like we were in this week where there’s so little movement. You’re challenged for every inch of the court. You’re challenged for every step. And so last year’s team, we didn’t respond very well once the Big Ten got into this part of the season. And we addressed that through recruiting. Our guys were able to do that tonight. They were able to get just enough space and separation and create the angles, and guys stepped up and made plays."

Illinois

• Record: 19-3 overall, 10-1 Big Ten
• Ratings: No. 5 on KenPom, No. 8 on Torvik, No. 8 on EvanMiya.com
• Best conference wins: Iowa, Purdue, Washington, Nebraska
• Worst conference losses: Nebraska
• Remaining SOS: 30th nationally, 9th Big Ten

Even though Illinois has suffered three times as many defeats as Michigan this season, the quality of opponents its lost to can’t be questioned: a neutral-site game against then-No. 11 Alabama on Nov. 19, a neutral-site game against then-No. 5 UConn on Nov. 28 and a home game against then-No. 23 Nebraska on Dec. 13. Two of those teams — UConn and Nebraska — are ranked among the top-10 nationally in the latest AP Poll, though Alabama has since slipped to No. 27 overall. 

Still, few teams in the country — if any — are as hot as the Illini amid their ninth season under head coach Brad Underwood. A scorching offense that is averaging 131.2 points per 100 possessions currently leads the nation in efficiency by nearly two full points over second-place Purdue and nearly four full points over third-place Alabama. Underwood’s team is on pace to record the most efficient offense this sport has seen across 30 years of data tracked by KenPom, with last year’s Duke squad (130.1 points per 100 possessions) being the only other program to top 130 during that span. 

For the Illini to be doing this without starting point guard Kylan Boswell (14.3 points per game), who suffered a broken hand in practice on Jan. 19 and will miss at least a few more weeks, adds to the impressiveness of the feat. Without him, true freshman guard Keaton Wagler, a former three-star recruit, has morphed into one of the most dynamic players in the country and is averaging 21.2 points per game over his last 13 outings. 

Coach quote: "I think we’ve got some toughness," Underwood said in a news conference following his team’s win over Nebraska on Sunday. "I think we’ve got some connectivity. Every game [has] its own identity, and we’ve got to solve different problems [each night]. I think this team has tremendous problem-solving ability. I think our basketball IQ is pretty high. I think our toughness is growing. I think we’ve got a little of that [toughness already], but I think we’ve still got some room to improve."

[NCAA TOURNAMENT: Kansas Looking Strong, Nebraska Drops in New Bracket]

Big Ten title race: Next in line

Michigan State

• Record: 19-3 overall, 9-2 Big Ten
• Ratings: No. 10 on KenPom, No. 13 on Torvik, No. 10 on EvanMiya.com
• Best conference wins: Iowa, USC, Indiana, Washington
• Worst conference losses: Nebraska, Michigan
• Remaining SOS: 22nd nationally, 5th Big Ten

The Spartans saw their seven-game winning streak snapped in a disappointing home loss to then-No. 3 Michigan, falling behind by 16 in the first half and then running out of steam down the stretch after clawing back to take a 57-55 lead with 7:27 remaining. Head coach Tom Izzo spent plenty of time in the post-game news conference lamenting his team’s performance — particularly in a turnover-ridden first half — while also alluding to the idea that certain flaws he and the staff had recognized earlier in the month were finally exposed by a quality opponent. It's possible Michigan State’s lofty conference record is somewhat overinflated given that the Spartans have now lost their only two Big Ten games against ranked opponents so far this season.

So what are some of the pitfalls? For starters, Michigan State is the most imbalanced of the five primary contenders for the Big Ten title. Michigan, Illinois, Purdue and Nebraska all rank among the top 27 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, which is something the Spartans can’t match. Izzo’s group sits 48th in offense and second in defense entering Wednesday’s game against Minnesota. There are also ongoing issues surrounding subpar backcourt play from everyone not named Jeremy Fears Jr., who is a legitimate Player of the Year candidate in the conference, and a team-wide 3-point shooting percentage of 35% that ranks 117th nationally. Moving forward, Izzo suggested the Spartans will introduce freshman wing Jordan Scott to the starting lineup in an effort to jump start the offense. 

Coach quote: "We got guys that are trying to do stuff they can’t do," Izzo said in a news conference following his team’s loss to Michigan on Friday. "That’s why in the last [few] games, our bigs have had 10 turnovers and nine turnovers. It’s hard to do that. It’s hard to do that. That means they’re trying to do more than they can do. We’re gonna have to talk about that. There’s things I’ve wanted to do for a couple weeks because I saw some things coming, and we’ll do that now. And yet I’m not gonna panic over getting beat in a game that we had that one stretch where it was just a bad stretch, there, in the first half. And then the second half, we battle all the way back [but] to not quite get it done at the end."

Nebraska

• Record: 20-2 overall, 9-2 Big Ten
• Ratings: No. 13 on KenPom, No. 12 on Torvik, No. 13 on EvanMiya.com
• Best conference wins: Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Washington
• Worst conference losses: Michigan, Illinois
• Remaining SOS: 66th nationally, 16th Big Ten

A dream-like run of 20 consecutive wins to begin the season finally came to an end for Nebraska last week during a difficult stretch in which the Cornhuskers fell to Michigan and Illinois in the span of six days, tumbling from No. 5 to No. 9 in the national rankings. In some respects, the idea that head coach Fred Hoiberg’s team remained undefeated through late January was something of a miracle, considering Nebraska had been picked to finish 14th in the Big Ten preseason media poll. The Cornhuskers have never won more than 23 games in a season under Hoiberg, who is partway through his seventh year, and have only finished above .500 in Big Ten play three times since rejoining the conference ahead of the 2011-12 campaign. 

But because Nebraska played so well for so long to begin this season, the nature of those back-to-back defeats rang particularly hollow. Despite injuries to two of their three leading scorers, the Cornhuskers led, 50-48, at halftime on the road against Michigan before scoring just 22 points in the second half. Then they led, 39-33, against Illinois at home on Sunday afternoon — this time at full strength — only to go cold once more in the second half, leaving Hoiberg & Co. feeling like they let another game slip away. 

Nobody seemed to embody that Jekyll-and-Hyde demeanor more than sharpshooting forward Pryce Sandfort, the team’s leading scorer at 17.2 points per game. Sandfort scored 26 combined points on 8-for-16 shooting from beyond the arc in first halves against Michigan and Illinois. But in the second halves of those games, he scored just 8 points on 1-for-9 shooting from 3-point range. Hoiberg told reporters he believed officiating was a significant part of that equation.

Coach quote: "They’ve got to let Pryce run, you know?" Hoiberg said in a news conference after his team’s loss to Illinois on Sunday. "He’s getting held, he’s getting grabbed. Our offense, freedom of movement, that’s gotta be enforced, you know? We run, I think, a pretty aesthetically pleasing offense, you know? But when you’re being held, you can’t run it. So we’re gonna continue to try to do it — cut, force, do everything we can to get these guys open and free them up — but it’s tough at times when you’re out there."

[MEN'S HOOPS RANKINGS: Florida, Illinois Climbing; Purdue Falls]

Big Ten title race: The dark horse

Purdue

• Record: 18-4 overall, 8-3 Big Ten
• Ratings: No. 9 on KenPom, No. 9 on Torvik, No. 9 on EvanMiya.com
• Best conference wins: Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, USC
• Worst conference losses: UCLA, Illinois, Indiana
• Remaining SOS: 10th nationally, 1st Big Ten

Entering a road game at UCLA on Jan. 20, the Boilermakers were comfortably positioned among the best teams in the country. They’d won nine consecutive games to improve to 17-1 overall and 7-0 in the Big Ten with an impressive résumé that included noteworthy non-conference victories over then-No. 8 Alabama, then-No. 15 Texas Tech and then-No. 21 Auburn. At that point, the only team to beat Purdue was then-No. 10 Iowa State, a team now ranked seventh in the latest AP Poll. Head coach Matt Painter’s team was firmly in the mix for both another Big Ten regular season title and a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. 

But then came three consecutive losses in a calendar week by 13 combined points — first to UCLA, then to Illinois, finally to Indiana — and suddenly, somewhat inexplicably, it seemed like the West Lafayette sky was falling. It marked just the second time in the last six seasons that Purdue suffered a losing streak of three games or longer, and this one sunk the Boilermakers into a tie for fifth in the Big Ten standings. A dominant, 30-point win over lowly Maryland on Sunday vaulted Painter’s team, which still ranks second nationally in offensive efficiency, back in the right direction, but there are plenty more challenges to come. The Boilermakers’ finishing kick includes games against No. 9 Nebraska, Iowa, No. 2 Michigan, No. 10 Michigan State and Wisconsin. It might be difficult for Purdue to win a third Big Ten regular season title in four years given where Painter’s group currently sits, but the roster certainly has enough talent to make a push down the stretch. 

Coach quote: "You get yourself in a position where you’re 7-0 in the league, and you’re 17-1, then you lose three straight, and you find out a lot about your guys," Painter told reporters following his team’s win over Maryland on Sunday. "And that’s the type of adversity you’re going to see at times. You’ve got to be able to weather through it and play better. But also, I think, our concentration hasn’t been at a high tilt. That’s come in and out. If you can hold your concentration and have discipline and embrace the physicality of the game and go out there and compete, you know, we’ve been a pretty good team, right? So that’s what we have to keep doing and keep building off that. You never have that figured out, but you’re always working on those areas."