Mattress Mack set to win $7.5 million if Houston wins NCAA Tournament

Three weeks ago, Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale made a late-night drive from Houston to just beyond the border into Louisiana, where sports betting is legal.

Once there, McIngvale unloaded a $1 million wager on Houston +750 to win the national championship. 

The bet, made via Caesars Sports’ mobile app, remains the largest reported wager on March Madness odds.

Now, with the bracket out and the NCAA Tournament about to commence, McIngvale is ready to get his betting sweat on — to a degree.

"I enjoy the sweat when I win. Losses I forget faster than a goldfish forgets," he said.

Caesars Sports is certainly perspiring a little bit already.

"Every game, every futures wager generates an equal sweat for the trading team," Caesars vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said. "We live for the thrill of the games, as do the customers."

Mucklow, Caesars traders Rich Zanco and Will Bernanke and McIngvale help break down Houston’s path in the NCAA Tournament odds market.

Pretty Vulnerable

Zanco is the lead college basketball trader for Caesars, so he’s certainly got his fingers on the pulse of the needs and liabilities for the sportsbook. In this case, with a million-dollar bet on the table, it’s pretty obvious.

"We definitely need Houston out of there," Zanco said during an X Spaces conversation on Monday.

Houston is now at +550 to win the NCAA Tournament. That trails only +400 favorite and defending champion UConn. 

Houston and UConn wouldn’t meet until the final.

But Zanco sees a challenging route to get that far for Houston, the No. 1 seed in the South Region.

"The way the bracket has [fallen], going into the second round, Houston will have a tough matchup vs. Nebraska or Texas A&M," Zanco said. "I think a team like Nebraska can actually give [Houston] a run for their money."

No. 8 seed Nebraska (23-10) reached the Big Ten semifinals last week before losing to eventual conference champion Illinois. No. 9 seed Texas A&M (20-14) made a run to the SEC semifinals, upsetting Kentucky in the quarterfinals before losing to Florida.

Meanwhile, Houston (30-4) is coming off a blowout Big 12 Championship loss vs. Iowa State.

"I would say Houston is pretty vulnerable overall. They’ve gone through droughts as far as scoring goes," Zanco said. "And they typically play low-scoring games, much to the dismay of the sharper betting crowd, who typically bets them Over."

First No. 1 Seed to Fall?

Bernanke doesn’t see Houston being an early victim in the NCAA tourney. But neither is Bernanke sold on the Cougars.

"Will they be the first No. 1[seed] knocked out? I don’t think so. But I don’t think they’re gonna win the national championship," Bernanke said. "They have some issues certainly with their offense. And I think they’ll get exposed when they play someone who is at least in their stratosphere defensively."

Last weekend’s setback to Iowa State, in particular, has Mucklow wary of the Cougars.

"Winning the NCAA Tournament is one of the hardest tasks in sports. Houston has shown that it’s vulnerable."

One Game at a Time

Regardless of how far Houston goes, it’s worth reminding that McIngvale stands to break even. Per usual, his big-dollar bet is a hedge against a mattress promotion he’s running at his Houston furniture store.

Customers who purchase mattress sets of $4,000 or more will get those sets for free if the Cougars win the championship. If Houston doesn’t win it all, Mattress Mack loses his bet, but his store retains the money from all those bedding purchases.

That said, McIngvale much prefers a Houston championship, since he’s primarily in the business of keeping customers happy. And he’s taking a press conference-like approach to Houston’s chances.

"I’m kind of like the coach: Take it one game at a time. To win the tournament, you’ve gotta win six in a row. That’s how it is."

McIngvale isn’t too concerned about Houston’s lackluster performance against Iowa State. Prior to that blowout loss, the Cougars were on an 11-game winning streak. Had they beaten the Cyclones, the Cougars would be on a 12-game run and would need to stretch that all the way to 18 to win the championship.

"It’s a whole lot easier to win six in a row than 18. I think the loss gets them refocused. It was an aberration," McIngvale said. "And seven out of the last nine NCAA Tournament winners lost in their conference tourneys. So it’s not really a big deal."

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More Money To Come?

As noted above, McIngvale is already in for $1 million, aiming for a profit of $7.5 million, for a total payout of $8.5 million. But he might not be done betting just yet.

Provided Houston gets through the first weekend, you can expect Mattress Mack to reinvest in the Cougars.

"The further they go, the more I bet," he said. "But it’s a double-edged sword. The further they go, the shorter the odds get. That’s a gambler’s dilemma."

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.