2025-26 College Basketball Odds: Conference Tournament Best Bets
One of the best times of the year is upon us, as winter slowly gives way to spring and March Madness gets underway.
Last weekend was filled with exciting conference tournament action, with plenty of upsets and buzzer beaters that make March special.
Navy, St. Thomas, Belmont, Central Arkansas and UNC Wilmington were all regular-season conference champions that have already suffered upset losses in their respective conference tournaments, illustrating once again how cruel life can be for teams in these small, one-bid leagues.
Upsets in those leagues that keep regular-season conference champions out of the Big Dance might reduce the number of upsets we get next week when the NCAA Tournament starts. Seeds 12-14 become a touch weaker, in theory, now that some of the strongest mid-major teams have been knocked out.
With more conference tournament action ahead this week, let’s look for some best bets and some teams I have my eye on.
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ACC
Duke is a prohibitive -350 favorite (a $35 wager pays out $10) to win this tournament and a rightful favorite. But the Blue Devils are missing two key players in Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba. Therefore, it’s hard to justify this hefty price tag, especially considering that the motivation might not be there for the Blue Devils, who could prioritize rest and getting as healthy as possible.
My colleague, Chris "The Bear" Fallica, made a case for Florida State at astronomical 200-1 odds that have since come down. Clemson at 40-1 is also intriguing.
But I think the best bet is Virginia at +750 odds.
The Cavaliers are the 2-seed and would avoid Duke until the title game. And who knows, maybe Duke, with all of those injuries, gets upset before then.
PICK: Virginia (+750) to win the ACC
Atlantic 10
Here's another conference where the favorite, St. Louis, is seemingly vulnerable with its recent poor form.
St. Louis is +130, but a host of teams are intriguing at longer odds. George Washington is +1600, has underperformed its metrics and could be a dangerous sleeper. But the team I like is the other George, and that's George Mason.
George Mason is still available in the 35-1 range. The Patriots have beaten each of the top three seeds in this conference, including a 29-point beatdown of St. Louis just a few days ago.
PICK: George Mason (+3500) to win the Atlantic 10
Big Ten
Michigan is the rightful favorite at -135, as the Wolverines have been dominant all year long. They are undefeated on the road in Big Ten play.
Purdue is interesting at +750, considering its lofty preseason status and that most of the Boilermakers' recent struggles have surprisingly come at home.
Wisconsin is +3500 and has proven it can beat all the best teams in this conference, with impressive wins over Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State and Purdue. But the Badgers' path to a title is treacherous, and the team I will ultimately wager on is Michigan State at +650.
Betting on Tom Izzo in March is rarely a mistake, and his teams usually thrive in tournament formats. Plus, I’m sure he and his squad would like another crack at Michigan, which MSU wouldn’t have to face until the title game.
PICK: Michigan State (+650) to win the Big Ten
Big East
UConn is the favorite at even-money odds, and coach Dan Hurley will likely have his team motivated after a surprising upset loss to Marquette cost them a share of the regular-season title.
However, the Huskies have been too inconsistent, and the price is too short for me here.
Seton Hall at +1500 crossed my mind, with its defense and gritty style. Plus, the Pirates likely need to win this tournament to hear their name called on Sunday. The best value to me is on St. John’s at +170, which will play at home (Madison Square Garden) and likely play in the championship game come this weekend.
PICK: St. John's (+170) to win the Big East
Big 12
Arizona is the odds-on favorite to win and might be overlooked when it comes to winning the national title. In a loaded conference, though, I will take a shot on Kansas at +850.
The Jayhawks have a superstar talent in freshman Darryn Peterson. They also have an edge as they're playing close to home, along with a coach in Bill Self who has plenty of experience cutting down the nets in this tournament.
PICK: Kansas (+850) to win the Big 12
SEC
Alabama is +850 to win, and with a realistic path to the finals, the Tide might get hot enough from beyond the arc to cash in at long odds.
However, watching Florida recently, the -180 favorite is boring to bet. But it’s the only one I can make here.
PICK: Florida (-180) to win the SEC