Is Saturday's UConn-Marquette showdown the most anticipated game of the season?
Get your popcorn ready, college hoops fans.
With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror and the month of March quickly approaching, college basketball is set to take center stage in the sports world, and it's quite fitting that the first post-NFL weekend features a loaded slate on the college hoops front.
There are three ranked vs. ranked games on Saturday, as well as several in-state rivalry matchups (watch Michigan-Michigan State on FOX and the FOX Sports app), but none bigger than a top-five Big East showdown between No. 1 UConn and No. 4 Marquette (3 p.m. ET on FOX and FOX Sports app).
Not only does the highly-anticipated Big East tilt have major implications for the conference standings, but it will also impact NCAA Tournament seeding, with both teams looking to add another Quad 1 victory to their résumé.
Over in the Big Ten, Tom Izzo continues his quest to find consistency from his Michigan State team as the Spartans travel to Ann Arbor to battle in-state rival Michigan. The Spartans are fresh off back-to-back wins over then-No. 10 Illinois and Penn State, while the Wolverines are looking to snap a two-game losing streak.
With a jam-packed weekend ahead, FOX Sports college basketball experts John Fanta and Michael Cohen are here to break it all down and offer their thoughts on UConn-Marquette, Michigan-Michigan State, and answer some big-picture questions as we enter the home stretch.
UConn takes on Marquette in a top-five showdown Saturday on FOX. Which storyline are you most interested in heading into this game?
John Fanta: There's unfinished business in a matchup in the Big East that has suddenly emerged as a game with a rivalry feel to it. Why? These teams don't like each other, and it stems back to last year's Big East Tournament when Marquette beat UConn in a 70-68 thriller en route to the championship game and an eventual conference title. Inside Madison Square Garden, while Golden Eagles fans did show up, Connecticut had the better share of the crowd and the narrative spun that MSG was a third home for the Huskies next to Gampel Pavilion and the XL Center.
Well, Kam Jones, David Joplin and that Marquette team heard those statements.
"I know they thought they owned the place, but they still had to show up for the game," Joplin, now a junior, told FOX Sports following that game. "We showed them MSG wasn't in fact their home."
Jones added to the fun:
So, that's the storyline that I can't wait to see play out on Saturday in Storrs, because the last time UConn lost last season, it was to Marquette in New York City. Sophomore forward Alex Karaban told me in the offseason that this year's team was motivated to reach the mountaintop of the Big East. Yes, UConn was out of the league and in the American Athletic Conference for seven seasons, but the Huskies still haven't won a Big East regular-season title since 2006. A win on Saturday likely locks that up because UConn would have a three-game lead in the standings.
As for the matchup on paper, the point guard showdown between Marquette's Tyler Kolek and UConn's Tristen Newton will be pure theater. Both are All-Americans and Big East Player of the Year candidates, in my opinion. Then, you've got dynamic sharpshooters in the Huskies' Cam Spencer and the Golden Eagles' Jones at the 2-slot. The big man matchup is one of contrasting styles between Donovan Clingan and Oso Ighodaro. Michael, it's safe to say this will be fun. What are you focused on in this top-four showdown?
Michael Cohen: The battle to see who can control the tempo of Saturday's game has the potential to be fascinating. Connecticut, which enters the weekend having won 13 straight after knocking off DePaul on Wednesday night, is among the most effective — and most deliberate — offensive teams in the country this season. A meticulous offense overseen by head coach Dan Hurley and defacto offensive coordinator Luke Murray is predicated on layered sets and actions that test an opponent's ability to guard for the duration of the shot clock. As of Tuesday afternoon, UConn ranked third in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency while checking in near the bottom of Division I for two metrics that reflect pace: The Huskies are 326th in adjusted tempo with 64.7 possessions per game and 298th in average possession length at 18.5 seconds per possession. In other words, Connecticut is keeping the ball for longer amounts of time to find higher-quality shots.
Marquette's philosophy under head coach Shaka Smart is quite different. The Golden Eagles are also among the best offensive teams in the country this season — they are 21st nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency — but they generate their points with a much greater sense of urgency. Smart's team ranks 81st in adjusted tempo with 69.5 possessions per game and shoots the ball faster than all but six Division I programs based on an average possession length of just 15 seconds. Alabama is the only team from the power conferences with a shorter average possession length than Marquette this season. That means the visitors will be eager to transform Saturday's game into a track meet and disrupt Connecticut's potently plodding rhythm.
2. Arizona has won seven of its last eight and look to be playing its best basketball of the season with March just around the corner. Are the Wildcats a legitimate national title contender?
Michael: The answer to this question likely hinges on the performance of standout guard Caleb Love, a North Carolina transfer whose efficiency has skyrocketed in his fourth season of college basketball and first with the Wildcats. After averaging 14.6 points per game across three seasons with the Tar Heels, Love was one of the most coveted players in the transfer portal, rated by 247Sports as the No. 16 overall prospect and No. 3 point guard. He was verbally committed to Michigan last May before reversing course and choosing Arizona, a move that has proven particularly shrewd given what's unfolded with the Wolverines (8-17 overall, 3-11 Big Ten).
The biggest question surrounding Love was whether he could ever develop into a more efficient player. He was a volume shooter at North Carolina who needed 13.5 attempts per game to reach his scoring average. He shot just 36% from the field and 31.7% from beyond the arc over the last three years combined. It's worth noting, Love has always been an excellent free-throw shooter at 82.6% for his career.
A noteworthy uptick in efficiency since transferring to Arizona is one of the biggest reasons why his new team is in contention for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Love has made significant improvements in his 2-point field goal percentage (39.7% at UNC to 51.% with the Wildcats), his 3-point field goal percentage (31.7% to 34.9%) and his KenPom offensive rating (95.8 to 118.1), despite precious little variance in his shot selection: He's still averaging a little more than seven attempts per game from both 2-point range and 3-point range.
So the question for Arizona fans to ponder is this: Has Love actually improved enough to where this elevated level of play is sustainable, or will he eventually regress toward the three-year mean he displayed at North Carolina? The answer to that should determine whether the Wildcats can truly win it all.
John: I absolutely believe that Arizona is a national title contender. Now, the key question that I'm asking with the Wildcats is this: Can they sustain their "on" level for six straight games in the NCAA Tournament? When this team hits the light switch and is playing complementary basketball, the gear that Tommy Lloyd's team can hit is one that only UConn and Purdue can touch. But I am actually going to disagree with Michael on who I identify as the key piece to the whole equation.
When he is on, the Wildcats are on. They are 14-1 when the 6-foot-2 sophomore guard scores in double-figures, and the one defeat came in the double-overtime classic against Florida Atlantic in December. Love is surely the leader of this team with 18.9 points per game, but having the backcourt sidekick in Boswell in sync with him is so important, and was crucial in the road sweep of Utah and Colorado this past week. The Wildcats put up two of their best, hard-nosed performances of the season by earning wins in the toughest road weekend in the Pac-12. Winning in Boulder on Saturday in commanding fashion was that much more impressive when considering they were 48 hours removed from a triple-overtime game in Salt Lake City. Boswell combined for 31 points and nine assists in those games, further showing what it means for this team when he is fulfilling his role.
But for me, Arizona is a national title contender because they've proven they can win away from home from the start of the year when they won at Duke. They can also get it done on both ends of the floor. The Wildcats are one of only three teams ranking in the top 15 in KenPom adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency (Purdue, Tennessee).
3. Indiana State is ranked in the AP Top 25 for the first time since Larry Bird donned a Sycamores jersey in the late 1970s. Is this the type of team that could make a Cinderella run in the Big Dance?
John: This is merely my take: Saint Peter's was the ultimate Cinderella. Princeton wore a slipper last year. FDU had the magical night of all nights as well.
If Indiana State goes on an NCAA Tournament run, they won't be a Cinderella in my book because they truly belong on the national stage and earned that Top 25 ranking this week. While I am slightly concerned about how their defense would hold up against teams outside the Missouri Valley Conference when they get to March Madness, I'd rather have some concerns about defense than offense. Great offense beats great defense. It's part of the reason why I've had trust issues in the NCAA Tournament in the past with Tennessee and Virginia. At some point, you've got to score. The Sycamores can flat-out fill it up in a hurry, boasting the nation's 18th most efficient offense and currently sitting at fifth in the country, averaging 85.6 points per game. Junior guard Isaiah Swope not only averages 18 points per game, but shoots 45% from the floor and 40% from downtown. And get this? He averages a whopping 3.5 made triples per contest. Swope isn't the only sharpshooter on the team, as he's one of five to average at least 37% from deep. As Michael said, there's the idea of "live by the 3, die by the 3," which is part of the equation, but this team isn't reliant on solely one star player and can ride a number of hot hands on any given night.
Michael: With the tacit acknowledgment that this is a cop-out, the answer is both yes and no. At 22-3 overall as of Tuesday afternoon, the Sycamores are unquestionably one of the most entertaining stories in the country this season, an epic rise made greater by the glorious Rec Specs goggles of star center Robbie Avila, who averages 16.4 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. They're ranked 18th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and sit comfortably among the top 10 in both 3-point field goal percentage (39.2%) and 2-point field goal percentage (62.2%). Alabama, Arizona, Kentucky and Samford are the only teams in the country that average more points per game than Indiana State (85.6) thus far. All of that makes the Sycamores a legitimate Cinderella candidate come March.
But there's also an underbelly that could come back to haunt Indiana State against power conference opponents in an NCAA Tournament setting. North Florida and BYU are the lone Division I programs who attempt a higher percentage of 3-pointers than the Sycamores, who launch 50.3% of their total field goals from beyond the arc. And as such, Indiana State relies on 3-point shooting to produce 40% of its points, the 11th-highest rate in the country. Being overly reliant on 3-pointers in a single-elimination format is dicey. The Sycamores could either get hot and run a few teams out of the gym, thus becoming an NCAA Tournament darling, or they could run cold against non-Missouri Valley Conference opponents and fizzle before March Madness truly gets going.
4. Michigan State takes on in-state rival Michigan Saturday night on FOX. This rivalry has lost a bit of its juice, but the Spartans are riding high following a top-10 win over Illinois and a much-needed road win over Penn State. How can Tom Izzo's team find more consistency as we inch closer to March?
Michael: Assuming that shooting guard Tyson Walker remains the steadiest of Michigan State's veteran trio, the pressure to perform at a higher level falls squarely on the shoulders of point guard A.J. Hoggard and power forward Malik Hall, two veterans who have spent nine combined seasons in Izzo's program. Both players have shown flashes of greatness throughout their respective careers — including this past weekend when they combined for 55 points in an upset of then-No. 10 Illinois — but an inability to consistently reach their best means there's often a lingering sense of frustration surrounding their performances. And at this point in time, after making more than 260 appearances for Michigan State, the evidence suggests Hoggard and Hall simply are what they are: solid college players who occasionally reach a higher level.
Assuming that logic holds for the remainder of the year, one of the biggest areas where Michigan State can improve is at the free-throw line. The Spartans rank 273rd in free-throw percentage with a 69.1% clip that, as of now, is the lowest by an Izzo-coached team since 2017. The average margin of defeat in Michigan State's nine losses this season is 8.1 points per game, including three defeats by three points each. The Spartans shot 66.4% from the free-throw line during those nine games and missed an average of 5.1 free-throws per loss. Improving from the charity stripe can help offset the volatility from Hoggard and Hall.
John: I think for the Spartans, their success comes down to whether or not the offense is gelling. How does that happen more easily and more consistently for this team? With tempo. For a team that isn't consistent from the perimeter, being able to get out in the open floor has been a game-changer and Michigan State has the luxury of backcourt weapons to flourish on the break. Just look at the win over Illinois, where they outscored the Illini 23-9 in fast-break points. Earlier this year in their signature non-conference win over Baylor, the Spartans totaled 21 fast-break points and 29 off turnovers. There's no doubt free throws have been a bugaboo, and I totally agree with Michael on that point, but I think more than anything, they've got to find ways to make offense come easier, especially away from East Lansing.
One thing about Hall: He has been pretty consistent in recent weeks, scoring in double-figures in nine of the last 10 games and 11 of the last 13 for the Spartans. Michigan State is 12-4 when Hall hits at least 10 in a game, and he is a matchup problem at 6-foot-8 and 220 pounds.
The one other thing I would bring up for Michigan State: Late in the season, just get it to Tyson Time. Walker has shown he is made for the big moment, and I wouldn't want to be stuck in a tight game with Izzo ever, especially not during March.
5. When looking at the top of the AP Top 25 Poll, one common theme is that all top-ranked squads have elite point guard play. Who has been the best floor general in the country this season?
John: Here are my top-five point guards in the country in no particular order: Northwestern's Boo Buie, Connecticut's Tristen Newton, Purdue's Braden Smith, Marquette's Tyler Kolek and Colorado State's Isaiah Stevens.
If I could only pick one guy? At the moment, it's Kolek for me. Nobody in the country is playing better, more efficient basketball than him right now. Over the last four games, the senior is averaging 25.8 points, 8.8 assists and 5.5 rebounds per contest. He's scored at least 27 in three of the last four games, totaling a double-digit number of assists four times in the team's eight-game winning streak. During the surge, how about this for Kolek? He has totaled 75 assists to just 21 turnovers. His latest act? A 27-point, seven-rebound and five-assist performance in a 78-72 win over Butler. When the Bulldogs cut the lead to 64-62, Kolek scored five of the team's next eight points and assisted on a Jones triple.
Newton's having a sensational year, as is Smith, and I will listen to those arguments. But Kolek is as important to his team as any player in America. If you take him off Marquette, I think they'd go from being a top-five team to one that would hover around the 7-10 seed line in the NCAA Tournament picture. Not only is he a great player, but Kolek plays with serious swagger – and backs it up.
Now, Newton might have something to say about this on Saturday. What a showdown it will be on FOX between a Huskies team that has won 13 in a row and Marquette, which has won eight straight. There's not much of a gap right now, but I lean Kolek over Newton and part of that is just how deep the Huskies are as well, but the other is just how great Kolek's been in recent weeks.
Michael: This question feels like it boils down to Connecticut's Tristen Newton, Purdue's Braden Smith and Marquette's Tyler Kolek, all of whom have enjoyed spectacular seasons for three teams ranked among the top five in the latest AP Poll. Given that the Huskies are No. 1 in the country, it's hard to overlook what Newton is doing in his second season with the program. He ranks second on the team in scoring at 15.2 points per game — with is one-tenth of a point behind leader Cam Spencer — and leads UConn in both rebounding (6.6 per game) and assists (5.8 per game). All of those statistics are improved from what Newton averaged last year in a backcourt he shared with NBA draft picks Jordan Hawkins and Andre Jackson Jr. He probably deserves the nod.
For those who prefer Kolek to Newton, this week's showdown between Marquette and UConn is the first of at least two games that, to some extent, will begin to settle the debate. The reigning Big East Player of the Year is having a marvelous season in which he leads the Golden Eagles in scoring (15.6 points per game) and assists (7.5 per game) while ranking second in rebounds (4.9 per game). He's improved his field goal percentage, his 3-point percentage and his free-throw percentage over last season. There's little doubt he's among the best players in the country.
As for Smith, who is averaging 12.7 points, 5.6 rebounds and 7.1 assists as a true sophomore, it's difficult to know how much of that production is inflated by the presence of center Zach Edey, whose 7-4, 300-pound frame poses matchup problems every time the Boilermakers take the floor. Would Smith's assist numbers be so high if Edey wasn't towering and dunking over the opposition? Would Smith's scoring be so potent if Edey wasn't attracting as much attention as he does on a nightly basis? Obviously, those factors are beyond Smith's control — he plays with the teammates he has — but neither Newton nor Kolek shares the court with a center who can match Edey's production and gravitational pull on the offensive end of the floor.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.
Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.