Iowa Basketball: Predicting Every Game of the 2016-17 Season
Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Predicting every game on Iowa’s 2016-17 schedule
Most predictions have Iowa basketball finishing around ninth in the conference. With a lot of uncertainty heading into the season, that stems from losing four starters from a year ago, the Iowa Hawkeyes can seemingly only exceed expectations.
They have a star in Peter Jok to lead them, and Tyler Cook should contribute right away as a freshman. Although, after those two, head coach Fran McCaffery will have to work his magic again and avoid a down year after going 22-11 in 2015-16 and winning 20-plus games for the fourth straight year.
He’s been able to handle turnover his whole career with Iowa, but this year he faces a new challenge. While Iowa reaching top-five in the AP Poll likely won’t happen again this year, the Hawkeyes do have a chance to sneak up on people and have a solid season.
The Big Ten is once again one of the tougher basketball conferences in the nation, and that means more tests for the Hawkeyes and chances for a big win. It also means a young team could crumble under the pressure and fail to reach the low expectations set for them this year.
Here’s a look at the entire 2016-17 schedule, and a prediction for each game of the year.
Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
November – 7 Games
November 11 vs Kennesaw State Owls: Iowa starts the season at home against Kennesaw State. The Owls went 11-20 last season, including losing all six games to Power Five schools by an average of 26.7 points. Kennesaw State does return leading scorer Kendrick Ray, although lose Yonel Brown, the only other player to average double-digit points.
When it comes down to it, Kennesaw State lost two starters from a year ago, so at best they need a small transition period even if they do improve on their record from a year ago. Brown will be a good test for Iowa’s young point guard, whoever Fran McCaffery chooses to start, but Iowa should win easily at home to start the season.
Prediction: Win (1-0)
November 13 vs Savannah State Tigers: Last season Savanna State went a respectable 16-16 and ended the regular season winning nine of their last 11 games. That being said, they struggled against even mediocre Power Five competition, and now will need to win at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in their second game of the season.
They return just one double-digit scorer and one player who averaged at least five rebounds last season. Troyce Manassa is their best player, but their lack of talent in the paint will cause them problems all season, especially against Iowa. Look for Tyler Cook to have a breakout game and Iowa to go deep in their bench to give minutes to front court players against a team who had no one average a block per game. Iowa will win with ease, again.
Prediction: Win (2-0)
November 17 vs Seton Hall Pirates: Seton Hall went an impressive 25-9 last season but lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to Gonzaga. The Pirates could have been a favorite in the Big East, but star point guard Isaiah Whitehead declared for the draft. That’s a big hole Seton Hall needs to fill, and they probably won’t have it figured out by the third game of the season.
That being said, Seton Hall added a four-star shooting guard in Myles Powell and return four starters. In fact, other than Whitehead, the Pirates return everyone who played at least 10 minutes per game a year ago. This will be each team’s first test of the season, and being at home will help Iowa. Still, Seton Hall has an experienced roster and is a borderline top-25 team.
Prediction: Loss (2-1)
November 20 vs University of Texas Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: The Vaqueros went 8-22 in the WAC last year, a conference that New Mexico State won. This could have been a letdown game for the Hawkeyes coming off a tough game against Seton Hall and with Virginia next on their schedule, but UT Rio Grande Valley simply isn’t a good team. This is a game to rest starters and give the bench valuable minutes.
Prediction: Win (3-1)
November 25 vs Virginia Cavaliers (Neutral Site): The Hawkeyes got the unlucky draw to kickoff the Emerald Coast Classic against Virginia. The Cavaliers are coming off another impressive season in which they went 29-8 and made the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. The ACC powerhouse will have to find a way to replace the always productive Malcolm Brogdon, but they return a talented, veteran group and also added five-star shooting guard Kyle Guy and three-four star recruits, as well.
The Cavaliers are ranked seventh in the preseason Coaches Poll, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they reach the top-five by the time they play Iowa. This will be a great chance for Peter Jok to battle one of the best freshman guards in the nation, and for a national audience to see Tyler Cook. When it comes down to it, though, very few things can go wrong for Iowa to win, and that’s not a good bet.
Prediction: Loss (3-2)
November 26 vs Providence Friars (Neutral Site): The Hawkeyes might play the Memphis Tigers instead of Providence, but I think Memphis and Virginia will meet in the Emerald Coast Classic Final. Forget the 24-11 record Providence had a season ago because losing Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil are massive road blocks they will have to overcome.
The Friars still have a fairly deep team but losing two of the best players in the country will have to be made up from more than just depth. Maybe Providence will have everything figured out by the time they play Iowa, but it really depends on each team’s games the night before. Iowa is also very deep, so they might have fresher legs, especially if a blowout occurs against Virginia and McCaffery rests his starters. The Friars will be a bubble team by season’s end, and these are the games Iowa needs to win.
Prediction: Win (4-2)
November 29 @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Demetrius Jackson and Zach Auguste will be hard to replace this season, but V.J. Beachem and Steve Vasturia both played heavy minutes and were key contributors a season ago, as well. In fact, outside of Jackson and Auguste, the Irish return everyone who saw at least 10 minutes per game and added four-star guard Temple Gibbs.
This is a really good first road test for the new look Hawkeyes. At the same time, this will be the first respectable Power Five team Notre Dame faces, as well. They have a chance to crack the top-25 this year, but it’s a matter of how quickly former third and fourth options can step up. Replacing a double-double average and their leading scorer is a tough task for any team. However, Iowa is a young team and nerves might get to them if the game is close late. The Hawkeyes lose and fall to 0-2 in conference challenges.
Prediction: Loss (4-3)
Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
December – 7 Games
December 3 vs Omaha Mavs: The Omaha Mavs might give Iowa a better game than anticipated. They finished last season with a respectable 18-14 record in the Summit conference. That being said they lost all three games to Power Five schools a season ago and lost their two leading scorers this offseason. Iowa needs to start to find a rhythm and momentum at this point of the season, and these games are how they do it.
Prediction: Win (5-3)
December 5 vs Stetson Hatters: Conference play is coming soon and Iowa can’t afford to lose games against teams like Stetson. Starters won’t play a lot and the bench should thrive against a team that went 12-22 in the Atlantic Sun a year ago.
Prediction: Win (6-3)
December 8 vs Iowa State Cyclones: Peter Jok has never beaten Iowa State, and I’m sure that does not sit well with him. The Cyclones have won six of the past seven meetings, including last year when Iowa blew a 20-point lead. Iowa State is a borderline top-25 team again, but replacing three players who played 30-plus minutes a season ago will be tough. Iowa State does get back Nazareth Mitrou-Long, who missed all but eight games last season due to a medical redshirt year.
Iowa State is the better team this year, that’s evident. Although they have also not seen a lot of Iowa’s current roster, and anything can happen in rivalries. The matchup to watch is two freshman, though — Tyler Cook and Cameron Lard, who are both four-star recruits. As crazy as it may sound, Iowa wants it’s revenge from a year ago and Peter Jok doesn’t want to finish his Iowa career 0-4 against the Cyclones.
Prediction: Win (7-3)
December 17 vs Northern Iowa Panthers (Neutral Site): Northern Iowa had a really good season last year and are usually a good team in the MVC. They upset Texas in the first round of the NCAA Tournament and it’s never safe to count them out of any game. That being said, they lose key players in Wes Washpun and Matt Bohannon. While they had a deep roster in 2015-16, there is a difference between role players and being the team’s go-to player.
Still, bringing back a roster who beat two top-five teams shows their experience. Not to mention Northern Iowa going 2-1 over the past three Hy-Vee Classics, and their one loss coming in overtime to a ranked Iowa State team. On the other hand, Iowa is also 2-1 in the Hy-Vee Classic, but their lone loss came to Northern Iowa. The Panthers will have had a month to find their rotation, and it has the potential to be a letdown win for a young Iowa team after a big win over Iowa State.
Prediction: Loss (7-4)
December 20 vs North Dakota Fighting Hawks: Not to be confused with North Dakota State, but it would be really terrible if Iowa lost to a North Dakota based school in football and basketball this season. Even though North Dakota only went 17-16 last season in the Big Sky conference, they return most of their rotation from a season ago.
Quinton Hooker averaged 20.1 points per game a season ago and Drick Bernstine averaged 9.7 points and 9.1 rebounds per game, but the Hawks aren’t balanced enough to win in Iowa City. They have a couple of solid players, but that doesn’t work much outside of the Big Sky.
Prediction: Win (8-4)
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December 22 vs Delaware State Hornets: This is the last game before conference play. Delaware State went 7-25 last year, don’t expect heavy minutes for the starters.
Prediction: Win (9-4)
December 28 at Purdue Boilermakers: The last game of 2016 kicks off conference play for Iowa. Purdue is ranked 15th in the preseason Coaches Poll, and it’s easy to see why. They added four-star guard Carsen Edwards and transfer Spike Albrecht, and return Caleb Swanigan, Isaac Haas, Vince Edwards and P.J. Thompson, just to name a few. It makes the loss of A.J. Hammons look insignificant, despite averaging 15 points and 8.2 rebounds per game a season ago.
At this point of the season Iowa will know their rotation and who they can trust in big games like this one. Although, Purdue enters the season knowing their rotation and who they’ll go to late in games. A perfect Christmas present for this team would be an upset win in West Lafayette, Indiana, but that doesn’t seem likely. Purdue is as well-rounded and deep as any team in the Big Ten, and unless Iowa strikes gold like last season, they won’t be much of a contest.
Prediction: Loss (9-5) (0-1)
Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
January – 9 Games
January 1 vs Michigan Wolverines: A blessing in disguise of all the Caris LeVert injuries finally show. Losing him to the NBA isn’t as catastrophic since they know how to play without him. Plus, two four-star recruits help. The Wolverines return five players who played 20-plus minutes a season ago, including Derrick Walton Jr. The now senior guard jumped onto the stage last season and averaged 11.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.8 steals per game.
If he can take the next step and become the team’s go-to player then Michigan has a chance to be one of the better teams in the conference and not have to play in the First Four like last year. If not, the Wolverines will have a good roster with no star to lead them. Walton isn’t a star in my eyes, but I think he’s just good enough to lead Michigan to a better season than their 23-13 campaign a season ago.
Prediction: Loss (9-6) (0-2)
January 5 @ Nebraska Cornhuskers: Nebraska has struggled since reaching the NCAA Tournament in 2013-14. They were better last season, but will probably regress after losing Shavon Shields and Andrew White III, their two leading scorers and rebounders. Tai Webster is the only other player on the roster to average double-digit points a year ago, but that was his first year seeing significant minutes. Therefore it might not be realistic to expect him to become their go-to player.
Without a definitive go-to player or identity, this is the perfect game for Iowa to break their two-game losing streak. Plus, it will be the first time Iowa wins on the road this season.
Prediction: Win (10-6) (1-2)
January 8 vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Rutgers went 7-25 a season ago and 1-17 in conference play. Three-star recruit Isaa Thiam, and Deshawn Freeman, who is returning from injury, should help, but it will take more than just a couple of additions to turn their program around. Iowa can’t afford to lose games to the bottom teams in the conference, and Rutgers is in that group.
Sure, they return a lot of their rotation from a season ago but it’s still the same team that won seven games. Rutgers will be better and win 10-plus games, but not in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes are the better team and will start to gain momentum by getting back to .500 in conference play.
Prediction: Win (11-6) (2-2)
January 12 vs Purdue Boilermakers: [See above why Purdue will be really good this year] Iowa can’t get down too much with a loss to Purdue at home, because they still have a lot to play for this season.
Prediction: Loss (11-7) (2-3)
January 15 @ Northwestern Wildcats: Northwestern is still looking for their first trip to the NCAA Tournament in school history. Just as they started to gain momentum with a 20-12 season, they lose key players in Tre Demps and Alex Olah. Bryant McIntosh, who averaged 13.8 points and 6.7 rebounds per game, will need to step up for the Wildcats.
Despite being a decent team a year ago, the Wildcats never established a true rotation. 11 players played in at least 20 games and they added three-three star recruits. Northwestern needs to establish a tighter rotation and give more minutes to their better players — only two players saw 25-plus minutes last season. In the end, Northwestern should have another solid season, where they finish around 8-10 in conference play again. But Evanston, Illinois isn’t a dreadful place to play for opposing teams, and this will be a big win for the Hawkeyes.
Prediction: Win (12-7) (3-3)
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January 19 vs Maryland Terrapins: After a stellar freshman season by Melo Trimble, Maryland has waited for him to take the next step. He led the team in points and assists per game a season ago, but will need to take on an even bigger role this year since no one on the current roster played 20-plus minutes a season ago. The belief in Trimble and Maryland’s recruiting class, which had three-four star recruits, has Maryland ranked 21st in the preseason Coaches Poll.
Maryland will need time to mesh as a team and develop their younger players, but a star like Trimble will help them ease into the college game. Plus, by mid-January, the Terrapins will have an identity as either a top-25 team or a young team who will be good next year. It will be a better game than people think, especially with it in Iowa City, but Maryland has a chance to finish in the top-15.
Prediction: Loss (12-8) (3-4)
January 25 @ Illinois Fighting Illini: Illinois and Iowa are in the same boat. Both have a really good guard leading their team — Malcolm Hill and Peter Jok — but neither are locks to make the NCAA Tournament. Getting Tracy Abrams back after he missed all of last season due to an Achilles tear is huge for Illinois, but is it enough?
The Illini return a decent amount of their core, but their recruiting class is underwhelming. With multiple four-star recruits joining them in 2017, this might be another wasted year for Illinois. It’s a common phrase but, Iowa has to win games against bubble teams like Illinois if they want to make the Tournament. Iowa won at Illinois last season, but the veteran back court will prove to be too much for Iowa on the road this year.
Prediction: Loss (12-9) (3-5)
January 28 vs Ohio State Buckeyes: Ohio State quietly made the second round of the NIT last season but will set their eyes higher this year. After a short break from sitting near the top of the Big Ten, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ohio State return this season. They return their entire starting lineup from a year ago and also added a pair of four-star recruits.
Just like many teams, someone needs to step up on Ohio State and assert themselves as the leader. Marc Loving averaged 14 points and 5.3 rebounds per game a season ago, but he has to shoot better than 41.4 percent and be the senior leader the Buckeyes need. Loving isn’t great, but he’s good enough to bring them to the NCAA Tournament. This would be a huge win for Iowa.
Prediction: Loss (12-10) (3-6)
January 31 at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Iowa desperately needs to end their three-game losing streak. See above to know why Rutgers still isn’t good at basketball, even at home.
Prediction: Win (13-10) (4-6)
Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports
February – 6 Games
February 5 vs Nebraska Cornhusker: If Iowa can win in Lincoln, they can win in Iowa City.
Prediction: Win (14-10) (5-6)
February 8 @ Minnesota Golden Gophers: Four-star recruit Amir Coffey will help a Minnesota team that finished 8-23 a year ago. Although, they lose four of eight players that played 15-plus minutes per game last season, including Joey King, who finished second on the team in scoring. The 2015-16 season is very uncharacteristic for a usually good basketball school, but one four-star recruit won’t drastically change things.
If that’s the case, then Iowa should be fine with Tyler Cook. It’s hard to imagine Minnesota not winning more than two conference games, especially when considering how hard playing at The Barn is. Although, they’re not the same dominating team of years past.
Prediction: Win (15-10) (6-6)
February 11 @ Michigan State Spartans: Of course when the Hawkeyes are on a three-game winning streak they run into the Big Ten favorite. Even though Michigan State lost Denzel Valentine and Deyonta Davis, Tom Izzo replaced them with another stellar recruiting class. Five-star recruits Joshua Langford and Miles Bridges headline a four player class that also includes two four-star recruits.
Sure, there’s a lot of turnover happening in East Lansing this winter, but Izzo is one of the best coaches in the nation. Don’t forget that Michigan State will want their revenge on Iowa after the Hawkeyes ended their perfect season last year. Playing on the road against the preseason ninth ranked team usually never ends well.
Prediction: Loss (15-11) (6-7)
February 18 vs Illinois Fighting Illini: Being at home makes all the difference sometimes.
Prediction: Win (16-11) (7-7)
February 21 vs Indiana Hoosiers: The loss of Yogi Ferrell will hurt them initially, but it won’t last long with their dominating front court. The preseason 12th ranked Indiana Hoosiers have one of the best front courts in the nation in Thomas Bryant and Og Anunoby. Plus, James Blackmon Jr returns to give Indiana a wing scorer. Not to mention their solid recruiting class of two-four stars and two-three stars.
The one thing helping Iowa is that they enter with a lot of confidence, winning three of the past four games. Although, is confidence enough to get the job done? Indiana is one of the most talented teams in the nation, it’s just a matter of when they put it all together with their new pieces.
Prediction: Loss (16-12) (7-8)
February 25 @ Maryland Terrapins: [See above why Maryland is really good] Being on the road won’t help.
Prediction: Loss (16-13) (7-9)
Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
March/Overall – 2 Games
March 2 @ Wisconsin Badgers: Wisconsin didn’t land any big-name recruits, but they still sit 10th in the preseason poll because of their veteran leadership. It’s a very Wisconsin move to be a top-10 team without a freshman phenom. Led by Nigel Hayes, Bronson Koenig and Ethan Happ, the Badgers arguably have the best veteran trio in the nation.
After going 22-13 a year ago, which is a down year for Wisconsin, expect them to bounce back and be a national title contender again. There is no more changing coaches midway through the season and Hayes should have a stronger start to his senior season. If Koenig and Happ continue to develop, this is a team that can make a Final Four run. It will be a great test for an Iowa team who has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament or NIT.
Prediction: Loss (16-14) (7-10)
March 5 vs Penn State Nittany Lions: The last game of the season, so why not end the season on a high note at home. The Nittany Lions went a respectable 16-16 but the loss of their leading scorer and rebounder, Brandon Taylor, is a big hole they need to fill. At this point, the season will be lost for both teams. Although, Iowa still has a chance to make the NIT and need a big win over Penn State to do so.
Don’t get me wrong, Penn State isn’t a terrible team. However, it is the last game of the season at home, I like my chances picking Fran McCaffery’s team.
Prediction: Win (17-14) (8-10)
As of now, the Iowa Hawkeyes will probably go around 17-14 on the year and 8-10 in conference play. Unless they win the Big Ten Tournament, it’s hard to see them making the NCAA Tournament, or even being on the bubble. They’ll likely finish eighth or ninth in the conference, and that won’t speak highly to voters.
That being said, a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament could result in an NIT birth. It might be a far drop from the level Fran McCaffery has had his team play at in years past, although he’s dealing with an almost entirely new team this year.
Injuries to key players on opposing teams, upsets or Iowa having players step up will obviously change the direction of the season. Although, Iowa will need at least 20 wins to make the NCAA Tournament, and it’s hard to see that happening.