Illinois Basketball: Illini v. BYU, A Hot Take on Strategy

By Fansided and Eric Bruce/FanSided via Writing Illini
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Can the Illinois basketball defense handle the high-octane firepower of BYU?

While I expect a relatively high-scoring affair, I think this game comes down to who has the best defense, ultimately.

Offense

As everyone who is paying attention knows, BYU scores a lot of points, currently averaging 85.8 points per game.  That is No. 24 in the country.

A very interesting stat on BYU is the average possession length on offense, as measured by kenpom.com.*

BYU is No. 5 in the country with an offensive APL of only 13.6 seconds.

While Illinois also scores their share of points, at just over 80 PPG, their offensive APL is 17.3 seconds, which puts them at No. 210.

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Both of these teams know how to tickle the twine, but BYU gets their tickle going much quicker.

The interesting thing about BYU’s offense is what it is not.  They are not a good three-point shooting team.

According to Kenpom, the Cougars are sitting at No. 288, shooting 30.8-percent (60-195).  Illinois is shooting 37.3-percent (91-229) in that category, ranking No. 89 in the country.

And we all know that number will go up once Jalen Coleman-Land’s shooting improves.

But how does each team defend the three-point shot?

Illinois sits at No. 149, allowing 34.1-percent shooting.  The Cougars are ranked No. 39, allowing just 30-percent on from the arc.

Illinois will need to figure out ways to get open since BYU clearly does an excellent job guarding the perimeter.

However, BYU hasn’t faced a team as good as Illinois from three-point country.  This will be a big battleground for both teams.

BYU likes to get their points inside the arc.  They make 51.4-percent of their two-point shots, ranking No. 101.

Illinois is no slouch in that area either, in fact doing a little better at 51.9-percent and coming in at No. 89 in the country.

The bulk of BYU’s scoring comes from Eric Mika, Nick Emery, and TJ Haws.  However, the Cougars get scoring from other players too, so this is not a team you can beat by shutting down one or two guys.

The most disturbing thing on offense that I have seen so far this year has been the Illini’s turnovers.

If this is a fast paced game turnovers could become a problem.  Illinois currently sits at No. 250 in the country with a turnover rate of 20.6-percent.  They need to reverse the trend starting tonight.

Defense

As I stated above, BYU has excellent perimeter defense.  That translates to good defense overall.  Whether the Illini go in or out, they will have to contend with BYU’s overall defense which is ranked at No. 74.

The Cougars’ defensive APL ranks No. 54.  So not only do they score, but they play good defense forcing teams to hold the ball a little longer.

That could spell trouble for an Illini team with an offensive APL ranking No. 210 in the country.  They average 17.3 seconds with the ball.

Illinois will need to be cognizant that BYU is good at forcing teams to take their time on offense, and since Illinois already tends to do that, this could result in some poor shot selection with the clock running down.

On Illinois’ end, they have to find a way to slow down one of the quickest offenses in the country.

The Illini’s defensive APL is also very good, ranking No. 62, so they need to keep it up.

I like how Groce has been throwing a mix of man-to-man and zone at teams and hopefully he keeps doing that.

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    But, the key to this game on the defensive end will be rebounds.  This will be a tight game, so time of possession will be critical and preventing BYU from getting second chance points will be the difference.

    Maverick Morgan, Michael Finke, and Mike Thorne Jr. need to channel their inner Leron Black.  Not just for tonight’s game, but for all games going forward.

    I really think if our bigs can play with a chip on their shoulder this season it will make all the difference.  Let’s see if they can step it up tonight.

    Conclusion

    This is going to be a game of chess between the coaches.  Both teams have depth and the coaches will constantly be directing the match-ups.

    This game will be a test for Groce’s coaching ability. Dave Rose is an excellent coach.  He is 283-99 heading into tonight’s game.

    Of active coaches, Rose is No. 8 in career winning percentage. He has a game plan and he will be prepared. But, hopefully, Groce can hand Rose loss No. 100.

    Illinois needs to control the tempo of this game.  That means slowing the game down on the defensive end.

    The Illini also need to force BYU to hold the ball much longer than they usually do.  If the Cougars get in the 90s, I don’t think that bodes well for the Illini.

    Illinois needs to get rebounds and run on offense. We need a vigorous inside-out game with points in the paint and some kick-out three-pointers.

    But, most of all, we need effort.  Effort is measured by hunger and passion.  I hope the Illini brought an appetite with them to Chicago.

    This would a huge win on the road and a big step forward in trying to achieve a 10-3 non-conference record.

    *The stats in this article are pulled from kenpom.com, and each team’s website.