College basketball 2022-23 countdown: No. 4 Kentucky

By John Fanta
Published

Editor's note: John Fanta is counting down his top 15 college basketball teams leading up to the start of the 2022-23 season. Checking in at No. 4 is Kentucky.

It’s Year 14 of the John Calipari era at Kentucky, and it’s safe to say his program has never had a vibe quite like this. 

Of course, Calipari crushed the summer recruiting cycle and had one of the best offseasons in the sport. That’s become common practice for Kentucky basketball.

On the flip side, the Wildcats are coming off a season that ended with the ultimate sour taste, a first-round NCAA Tournament defeat at the hands of 15th-seeded Saint Peter’s. It marked just the second time since 1987 that Kentucky failed to make it out of the first round of the Big Dance. Sure, anything can happen in the tournament, but when it comes after a season that saw the Wildcats go 9-16, this program and its passionate fan base feel due for a deep March run.

Here’s the deal: Kentucky can win it all this year, and the biggest reason for that is that the best player in college hoops resides in Lexington. The Cats welcome back reigning National Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe. After averaging 17.4 points and 15.1 rebounds per game in 2021-22, who knows what Tshiebwe could post in his senior season?

It bears noting that Tshiebwe’s return is not only awesome for Kentucky but an example of what NIL can mean for college basketball. Tshiebwe can stay in the sport and profit more off his name at the collegiate level than he would potentially by going pro.

It’s expected that the 6-foot-9 big man will be good to go for Kentucky’s opener as he comes off recovering from a minor knee injury, but that’s something worth monitoring early in the season.

Surround a star big man with the nation’s sixth-best recruiting class, a tremendous play-making point guard, and a core of others poised to make a leap? Yes, this Kentucky team can cut down the nets in Houston in April. And when it comes to motivation and redemption, the Wildcats have some similar qualities to Virginia, which lost to UMBC in 2018 but came back the next season and won it all. Here’s deeper dive on the No. 4 Cats.

Who’s back on the roster? 

Sahvir Wheeler is returning for his senior season — and second in Kentucky — to steer the ship. Leading the SEC in assists in each of the last two seasons, including No. 3 in the country at 6.9 assists per game in 2021-22, Wheeler has high-level playmaking ability and a quickness that makes him difficult to guard. While he’s just a 28% career 3-point shooter, and defenses try to force him into those shots, Wheeler seemingly overcomes that and makes things happen for others. For Kentucky to have a veteran creator and on-ball pest on the defensive end is huge for the Wildcats’ ceiling this year.

The player poised to make a big leap this year is 6-foot-9 senior forward Jacob Toppin. His defensive versatility and ability to attack the rim can be a big strength as he tries to grow into a much bigger role. Last season he averaged 6.2 points per game in 17.7 minutes. On the team’s Bahamas tour this past summer, he averaged 16.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.0 blocks, all while shooting an impressive 57% from the field.

Meanwhile, on the perimeter, CJ Fredrick is a guy who’s getting overlooked nationally but could prove to be vital. The Iowa transfer sat out his first season in Lexington with a hamstring injury, but his debut for the Wildcats is much-anticipated. For an offense that struggled in perimeter shooting last season and lost Kellan Grady, among other pieces, Kentucky needs reliable shooters for Wheeler to set up. Frederick hit on nearly 47% of his attempts from downtown in two seasons with the Hawkeyes. Calipari will rely on him to make shots, provide experience and maintain efficiency in their offense.

Two rotation players aiming to increase their roles are a pair of 6-foot-9 forwards, Daimion Collins and Lance Ware. Both could provide some versatility this season, and it will be interesting to see how much run Calipari gives them.

Who’s new on the roster?

Five-star recruits Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston are two of the top-12 freshmen in the 2022 class according to 247 Sports, and you can expect both to start. Wallace is a very tough 6-foot-4 guard. His defense and rebounding skills are beyond his years, and Calipari raved about the aggressive way he plays after the Wildcats’ exhibition game on Sunday. Look for him to do some ball handling as well. 

Livingston is a 6-foot-6 wing with great positional versatility. His explosive ability and physicality give Calipari a great weapon to work with on both ends of the floor. The Akron, Ohio native showed his rebounding prowess in his senior year at Oak Hill Academy, averaging 18.2 points, 9.1 rebounds and 3.9 assists.

The biggest key for Wallace and Livingston will be 3-point shooting. If both players are able to show consistency with their jump shots, they can be game-changers for the Wildcats. The duo combined to shoot 12-for-25 from beyond the arc on the team’s Bahamas summer tour. 

As for the transfer portal, Calipari made one addition in Antonio Reeves, a tremendous scorer at the mid-major level. The 6-foot-5 guard averaged 20.1 PPG at Illinois State last season, and it will be interesting to see how he handles the transition to a higher level of competition. Reeves’ ability to get hot in the scoring column could give Kentucky yet another source of offense and for what it’s worth, he started in the team’s exhibition game on Sunday. Can he avoid being a defensive liability at the SEC level?

Turning back to the freshman class, four-star recruit and seven-footer Ugonna Onyenso steps into the program and has the opportunity to learn under Tshiebwe’s wing this season.

Another player who can add depth on the perimeter is 6-foot-6 wing Adou Thiero, who will likely play limited minutes this season but could end up being a nice player for Calipari to mold long-term. In four games in the Bahamas summer tour, Thiero averaged 6.3 points on 58% from the field, with seven assists, 12 boards, seven steals and five blocks. He’s also had a growth spurt, and could end up at 6-foot-8 or 6-foot-9, according to Calipari. 

The key questions for the Wildcats to answer …

How will Calipari manage minutes? It’s a good problem to have, and Cal certainly has options to work with. Will the Cats freshman class live up to the hype? Wallace and Livingston are on the Jerry West Award and Julius Erving Award watch lists, respectively, and both should help the Wildcats with a toughness and length that you don’t always see from freshmen. But can they make enough shots when forced to do so from deep?

The other question: Just how big of a leap will Toppin take? Calipari has raved about his offseason, and now it’s time for him to piece something together and be a double-figure scorer. 

It’s certainly on the table for Fredrick and Reeves to provide sparks for the offense. Will Reeves handle the transition seamlessly and can Fredrick stay healthy?

Can Wheeler make jumpers when offered them by defenders? The Wildcats will need to make outside shots or opponents will make it hard for Tshiebwe to get easy touches. 

It’s all on the table for this Wildcats squad. Tshiebwe is the only college player in the last 30 years to average at least 17 points and 15 rebounds. The idea that he could get even better is scary.

Will this Kentucky team serve up a season of redemption? That’s the biggest question of all.

Schedule highlights 

  • Tuesday, Nov. 15: Michigan State (Champions Classic, Indianapolis)
  • Sunday, Nov. 20: Gonzaga (Spokane Arena)
  • Sunday, Dec. 4: Michigan (London)
  • Saturday, Dec. 17: UCLA (New York)
  • Saturday, Dec. 31: Louisville
  • Saturday, Jan. 7: at Alabama
  • Saturday, Jan. 14: at Tennessee
  • Saturday, Jan. 28: Kansas (SEC/Big 12 Challenge)
  • Tuesday, Feb. 4: Arkansas
  • Saturday, Feb. 18: Tennessee
  • Saturday, Feb. 25: AuburnSaturday, March 4: at Arkansas

Top 15 countdown:

John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.