College Basketball 2022-23 Countdown: No. 11 TCU
By John Fanta
FOX Sports College Basketball Writer
Editor's note: John Fanta is counting down his top 15 college basketball teams leading up to the start of the 2022-23 season. Checking in at No. 11 is TCU.
There’s something special brewing down in Fort Worth. Jamie Dixon has been building at his alma mater for a season like this, and there are legitimate championship expectations for the TCU men’s basketball program entering the 2022-23 campaign.
Last March, the Horned Frogs won an NCAA Tournament game for the first time since 1987 (!) and followed up the first-round rout of Seton Hall with a thrilling overtime loss against Arizona. A controversial no-call at the end of regulation had TCU and its fan base wondering what could have been, as the program came so close to its first Sweet 16 since 1968.
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The Wildcats needed overtime to beat TCU in the NCAA Tournament last season. Mark Titus and Tate Frazier discussed the wild ending.
Even in that nail-biting loss to the Wildcats, the Horned Frogs showed the country just how dangerous they could be when at their best. TCU is loaded heading into the season, with its top six scorers back. The Horned Frogs return 96% of their scoring from a season ago. On the other end of the floor, there should be no concerns. Last year’s squad ranked No. 15 in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency.
The way Dixon has elevated Texas Christian is what he was known for in his first head coaching job at Pittsburgh, where he worked from 2003-16. The Panthers made the NCAA Tournament 11 times in his 13 seasons, making three Sweet 16 appearances and one Elite Eight. While things eventually came to an end — and Dixon’s teams were known to fall short in March Madness — he was still a consistent winner there.
Now, the Horned Frogs enter the season with the potential to have one of their best campaigns in the history of the program. TCU hasn't been to the Elite Eight since 1968, back when the tournament was composed of just 23 teams. The program has never been to a Final Four.
All of that and more is possible for this team, and it’s why the Horned Frogs check in at No. 11 in our Top 15. Here’s a breakdown.
Who’s back?
The question should really be, who isn’t back?
During a time in which offseason roster changes rule the headlines in college basketball, the Horned Frogs are the exception. Outside Francisco Farabello, who transferred to Creighton, there were no major personnel losses for Dixon and his staff to replace.
The entire starting lineup from last year returns, and TCU is headlined by arguably the best returning player in the Big 12 in Mike Miles.
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Mike Miles Jr. had the green-light in the second half and helped TCU grab a huge victory against the Georgetown Hoyas last winter.
The 6-foot-2 guard from Highlands, Texas is coming off a sophomore season in which he averaged 15.4 points, 3.8 assists and 3.5 boards per game. He showed that he could do it all for Dixon, and he enters his junior campaign as a sure-fire All-Big 12 First Team selection and a Player of the Year candidate. During the team’s NCAA Tournament run, Miles followed up a 21-point performance against Seton Hall with a 20-point outing in the Arizona thriller. Not only was he the constant for the Horned Frogs as a sophomore, but he lived for the big stage, going for 26 points apiece in a pair of matchups against top-10 teams, Baylor and Texas. His role really can’t be overstated, and if TCU is going to live up to the high billing, Miles will likely be the biggest reason.
Let’s turn from the lead guard to examine the interior nightmare that TCU will present to opponents, as the Horned Frogs return the key pieces of a squad that ranked fourth in the country in offensive rebounding percentage (36%) and stood at ninth in the nation with 13 offensive boards per game.
Eddie Lampkin establishes the physicality edge for the Horned Frogs. The 6-foot-11, 263-pound center ranked second in the Big 12 last season with 2.9 offensive boards per game, and it should be expected that he continues to grow his offensive game in his junior season after tallying 6.8 points per contest. In the Round of 32 game against Arizona, Lampkin became an NCAA Tournament favorite with 20 points and 16 boards, 10 of which came on the offensive glass.
Elsewhere in the frontcourt, 6-foot-7 forward Emanuel Miller will be back at the four for the Horned Frogs. The former Texas A&M standout started all 34 games in his first year in Fort Worth, averaging 10.3 points per game and ranking as a top-10 rebounder in the Big 12 with 6.3 per game.
On the wing, TCU has a sixth-year player in Chuck O’Bannon Jr. The Las Vegas native was inserted into the starting lineup early in the season and ended up staying there for the final 25 games. As the team’s leader with 46 3-pointers last season, he will be very important for the Horned Frogs, who had flaws with their perimeter offense. O’Bannon is an X-factor of sorts because he had seven games of three-or-more triples last year, and that shot-making ability serves as a great enhancement for a strong rebounding and defensive team.
In the backcourt, Damion Baugh is back for his senior season to work alongside Miles and form the lead guard duo. The 6-foot-4 Nashville native came into the Horned Frogs program a year ago after starting his career with Memphis, and he sprung on the scene with 10.6 points and a team-high 4.5 assists per game.
Beyond the starting five, 6-foot-7 junior Micah Peavy is back in a sixth-man role after 6.1 points and 4.0 boards in 21.1 minutes per game. A player who may be getting slept on a bit is 6-foot-9 forward Xavier Cork, who’s had a big offseason and could serve in a solid role behind Lampkin. Another returning post option is 6-foot-11 junior Souleymane Doumbia, who played in 29 games last year but made minimal impact.
Who’s new on the roster?
Oklahoma State transfer Rondel Walker comes to Fort Worth looking to serve as a backcourt reinforcement. As a sophomore, he averaged 22.3 minutes but was unable to really find his footing offensively, averaging 4.9 points per game.
The Horned Frogs also have one freshman, three-star guard PJ Haggerty, who will be in a learning season behind TCU's veteran guards.
The Key Questions …
Will the Horned Frogs improve their 3-point shooting? It’s the other side of being an outstanding offensive-rebounding team because that means shots aren’t falling. TCU finished ninth in the Big 12 at 30% from beyond the arc last season. They only averaged 5.5 made triples per game to the opponent’s average of 6.1. Miles shot 29%, while Baugh was at 27%, and while neither will be confused as a great shooter, those clips have to see some sort of improvement. The perimeter is the area where Farabello leaving hurts a bit because he shot a team-best 38% from downtown. Dixon has the task of trying to find high-percentage shots from deep for a rhythm to get established, because if 3-point shooting is a flaw again, opponents will pack it in.
The other big question: Will the Horned Frogs improve in the turnovers department?
TCU ranked last in the Big 12 last season with a -1.88 turnover margin, finishing with the third-most giveaways in the league at 492. This is really the area that has kept Miles and Baugh from getting more respect as a backcourt duo. Last season, they combined for 190 turnovers by themselves. As a lead guard duo with plenty of experience, some of the sloppiness at times has to get cleaned up, especially for a team that has real expectations to win the Big 12 and contend for a deep NCAA Tournament run.
If the factors listed above see improvement, it’s going to be interesting to see how a roster chock-full of experience — and a veteran coach — perform in the unfamiliar role as the hunted. The Big 12 will once again be one of, if not college basketball’s best conference. With Kansas, Baylor and Texas also vying for conference supremacy, can a program less familiar with the spotlight rise up and validate the hype?
Nonconference Schedule Highlights
The Horned Frogs’ multi-team event is the Emerald Coast Classic in Florida, where they will face California and either Iowa or Clemson on Thanksgiving weekend. Following those matchups, a critical home game against reigning Big East champion Providence follows in the Big 12/Big East Battle. A date with what should be an improved Utah team comes Dec. 21 in Salt Lake City, and an SEC/Big 12 Challenge game at Mississippi State arrives on Jan. 28.
How about this for a stretch to close the season?
If the Horned Frogs are in Big 12 title contention, the schedule-makers sure knew how to set the stage for late-season drama:
Monday, Feb. 20: Kansas
Saturday, Feb. 25: at Texas Tech
Wednesday, March 1: Texas
Saturday, March 4: at Oklahoma
Top 15 countdown:
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.