With just two days of games remaining, the race for the four NCAA Tournament No. 1 seeds is down to just five realistic contenders — and one longshot.
Villanova (30-3) and Kansas (28-4) have separated themselves from the pack and are sure-fire bets for the first two slots. The Jayhawks’ Big 12 quarterfinal loss to TCU cost them the No. 1 overall seed, but not much more.
As of Saturday morning, my other two No. 1s were still North Carolina (27-7) and Gonzaga (32-1), but there’s mild concern for both. The Tar Heels’ ACC semifinal loss to Duke wasn’t exactly damaging, but it did send them into a tie for the most losses ever by a No. 1 seed. And many have been speculating for some time that the Pac-12 tournament champ could unseat the ‘Zags.
Both teams caught a break late Friday when Arizona toppled UCLA in the Pac-12 semifinals. The Bruins (29-4) stood to finish with the most impressive resume of the Pac-12’s heavyweight trio. The Wildcats (29-4), on the other hand, notched just their second RPI Top 25 win of the season. By comparison, UNC and Gonzaga both have five. Arizona is not in contention for a No. 1 seed.
Could Oregon (29-4) move up to the top line by beating Arizona for a second time? Possibly. Though keep in mind the Ducks would still have just five RPI Top 50 wins. That doesn’t stack up with UNC (11) or Gonzaga (six) either.
Here’s one other long-shot possibility, though: Duke. If the Blue Devils (26-8) win their fourth game in four nights Saturday against Notre Dame, they could finish with a national-best 13 RPI Top 50 wins. But they also lost eight games and tied for fifth place in the ACC this season.
All in all, there’s a good chance my current No. 1s will stay there.
* — Denotes projected conference champion, automatic berth. Teams in bold have secured an automatic berth.
This edition's bracket is East vs. West and Midwest vs. South in the national semifinals, based on the order of my No. 1 seeds.
BRACKET WATCH
| EAST REGION (NEW YORK) |
| Seed |
Team |
Location |
| 1 |
Villanova* |
at Buffalo |
| 16 |
New Orleans* |
| 8 |
Miami |
| 9 |
Dayton |
| 4 |
Florida |
at Orlando |
| 13 |
Vermont |
| 5 |
Virginia |
| 12 |
UNC Wilmington |
| 6 |
Minnesota |
at Salt Lake City |
| 11 |
Wake Forest |
| 3 |
Arizona |
| 14 |
Florida Gulf Coast |
| 7 |
Maryland |
at Greenville, SC |
| 10 |
Vanderbilt |
| 2 |
Duke |
| 15 |
Iona |
| WEST REGION (San Jose) |
| Seed |
Team |
Location |
| 1 |
Gonzaga |
at Salt Lake City |
| 16 |
South Dakota State/Mount Saint Mary's
|
| 8 |
Marquette |
| 9 |
South Carolina |
| 4 |
West Virginia* |
at Buffalo |
| 13 |
East Tennessee State |
| 5 |
SMU* |
| 12 |
Kansas State/Illinois State |
| 6 |
Iowa State |
at Indianapolis |
| 11 |
Providence/USC |
| 3 |
Louisville |
| 14 |
Cal State Bakersfield* |
| 7 |
Virginia Tech |
at Sacramento |
| 10 |
Wichita State |
| 2 |
Oregon* |
| 15 |
Jacksonville State |
| MIDWEST REGION (KANSAS CITY) |
| Seed |
Team |
Location |
| 1 |
Kansas |
at Tulsa |
| 16 |
North Dakota*/Texas Southern
|
| 8 |
Northwestern |
| 9 |
Xavier |
| 4 |
Butler |
at Milwaukee |
| 13 |
Princeton* |
| 5 |
Cincinnati |
| 12 |
Nevada* |
| 6 |
Wisconsin* |
at Orlando |
| 11 |
Middle Tennessee* |
| 3 |
Florida State |
| 14 |
Akron* |
| 7 |
Creighton |
at Indianapolis |
| 10 |
VCU* |
| 2 |
Kentucky* |
| 15 |
UC Irvine* |
| SOUTH REGION (MEMPHIS) |
| Seed |
Team |
Location |
| 1 |
North Carolina |
at Greenville, SC |
| 16 |
NC Central |
| 8 |
Seton Hall |
| 9 |
Oklahoma State |
| 4 |
Purdue |
at Milwaukee |
| 13 |
Bucknell |
| 5 |
Notre Dame* |
| 12 |
UT Arlington* |
| 6 |
Saint Mary's |
at Tulsa |
| 11 |
Michigan State |
| 3 |
Baylor |
| 14 |
Winthrop |
| 7 |
Michigan |
at Sacramento |
| 10 |
Arkansas |
| 2 |
UCLA |
| 15 |
Northern Kentucky |
LAST FOUR BYES: VCU, Vanderbilt, Michigan State, Wake Forest
LAST FOUR IN: Providence, Kansas State, USC, Illinois State
FIRST SIX OUT: Rhode Island, Syracuse, Iowa, Illinois, Cal, TCU
MULTIPLE BID CONFERENCES: ACC (9), Big Ten (7), Big East (7), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), Pac-12 (4), A-10 (2), American (2), MVC (2), WCC (2)