Big East breakdown: Who will win this four-horse race?

The Big East Conference appears to be a four-horse race as we head into the final month of the regular season. 

Entering Wednesday's action, there is a power trio at the top of the standings, with No. 14 Marquette, No. 16 Xavier and No. 17 Providence all tied at 17-5 overall and 9-2 in conference. Right behind them is Creighton (13-8, 7-3), which is riding a four-game winning streak.

Each team seems likely to earn an NCAA Tournament bid, but who will come away with the regular-season crown? 

FOX Sports college basketball analysts Andy Katz and John Fanta break down what to expect the rest of the way.

With Zach Freemantle out at least a month with a left foot injury, how will that impact Xavier’s chances in the Big East the rest of the way?

Andy Katz: This is significant. There is no other way to spell it. But the good news is the Musketeers have Jack Nunge and should be able to survive the loss overall. The Musketeers have already swept UConn. There are plenty of positives thus far for Xavier. They have built a solid résumé. Winning the Big East may not happen, but the Musketeers will be fine for seeding in the NCAA Tournament. How far they can go in the NCAAs will depend on if Freemantle makes a full recovery.

John Fanta: The injury to Freemantle is a massive blow to the Musketeers' Big East regular-season title hopes. The senior has been playing the best basketball of his career, averaging 15.2 points and 8.1 rebounds per game on 59% shooting from the floor. His versatile offensive skill set has given Xavier a real matchup wrinkle at power forward, and he's formed one of the best frontcourt duos in college basketball with Nunge. 

This is brutal news for Sean Miller, who doesn't exactly have the deepest team. Luckily, the sixth man for the Musketeers is a power forward in Jerome Hunter, who's scored in double-figures in four of his last six games and has shown great in-season development. For a Musketeers team that still has to face Providence twice along with visiting, it's going to be a tall order to win the Big East. It's good news for the Golden Eagles, Friars and the Creighton Bluejays. We'll see how 16th-ranked Xavier responds immediately on Wednesday night in a top-20 showdown with No. 17 Providence (6:30 p.m. ET on FS1 and the FOX Sports app).

What is the reason for Marquette’s improvement from last season and can the Golden Eagles keep it up?

Fanta: I wrote about this for the site a few weeks back, but it really started last spring following Smart’s first year at the helm at Marquette. At this time a year ago, the Golden Eagles had won seven of eight and then beat Villanova on Feb. 2 to complete a season sweep. They had it all going on, and then the bottom fell out. Marquette finished the season 3-6. Egos came into play, and the season went into a spiral. Justin Lewis departed the program for the pro ranks, and it left the Golden Eagles as an afterthought in this conference.

[Shaka Smart and Marquette: The perfect fit at the perfect time]

That’s all the fuel Smart needed. He had in-depth conversations with his players to discuss how they could avoid another late-season collapse. In the fall, Marquette went on a team retreat and held very candid talks about what they would need to be to succeed. In the climate of NIL and the transfer portal, not every team would be willing to hold those types of authentic discussions. Marquette’s formula for success is rooted in traditional player development — yes, that still exists! — and elite guard play. They are the most efficient offensive team in America, with Tyler Kolek posting 175 assists in 22 games and Kam Jones averaging 16 points per game on 49% shooting from the floor. With Oso Ighodaro, O-Max Prosper and David Joplin, Smart has mobility in his frontcourt. The Golden Eagles are one big nightmare to play.

Katz: This was the perfect fit for Smart. He did well at Texas, but he can flourish at a basketball-centric school even more. The Golden Eagles should have gotten everyone’s attention with a close loss to Purdue during the Gavitt Games. That game was overshadowed on that night by the Champions Classic, but Marquette gave Purdue a serious scare. The 26-point win over Baylor was a shocker, but only the margin. This team is legit. The Golden Eagles have five double-figure scorers and Kolek is dishing out eight assists a game! The inside play of Ighodaro has been consistently good. And Smart can count on Jones, Maxence-Prosper and Joplin to deliver. Marquette also has one of the best homecourts in the country in Fiserv Forum. This will be a team that has the goods to win a game or two in March.

What makes Ed Cooley’s Providence Friars a threat? What is their weakness?

Katz: Cooley gets the max out of his squads every season. That is never in question. And the AMP/DUNK, whatever you want to call it, has become a fantastic home court. There were legitimate concerns about Providence after losses to Miami, Saint Louis and at TCU. Of course, none of those losses are bad defeats. But PC just didn’t have the look of a squad that could be an NCAA Tournament team by Thanksgiving.

But they sure did prove everyone wrong. The 12-point win over UConn, when the Huskies were playing well, seemed to be the tipping point. The Friars have also won four Big East road games. Bryce Hopkins, the Kentucky transfer, has been an all-Big East performer at 16/9. His 29/23 performance in a 103-98 double OT win over Marquette was Big East player of the year worthy. The concern going forward will be what happens in the frontcourt. The guards rebound well, but there is a lot on Ed Croswell’s plate in the post. If the Friars get into the NCAAs against any frontcourt-heavy squads, then that could be their kryptonite. 

Fanta: Three things make the Friars a threat — Hopkins is one of the three best players in the Big East, Cooley is as good a closer that you will find, and the Friars defend and rebound. The way that PC plays, they’re going to be in almost any game, and if Cooley is in a close game with less than four minutes to go, he’s a safe bet. Since 2013-14, Providence is 73-29 in games decided by five points or fewer. At the start of the season, Providence really lacked a killer mindset. Cooley has found that with Hopkins, as well as South Carolina transfer Devin Carter, who’s second on the Friars during conference play averaging 14.9 points per game. Cooley knew Carter could defend, but the way he’s scored has been a pleasant surprise. With Jared Bynum back and refreshed off an injury, he gives Providence a different dimension as we saw on Sunday in the Friars' road win at Villanova.

If there’s any concern for the Friars, in my opinion, it would be to just clean certain things up with shot selection and ball security. During conference play, Providence has turned the ball over 148 times, the most of any Big East team. With Bynum back, that will improve. The other big thing is realizing that Hopkins needs to be getting the ball every time down in critical moments. He’s averaging 16.4 points and 9.1 rebounds per game, and at 6-foot-7, is such a tough cover. This team is going to be especially tough in the Big East Tournament in my opinion.

Creighton has shown that it can dominate — and struggle — this season. How good is this team, and what could hold it back?

Fanta: The Bluejays are Final Four good, and they give the Big East the best chance to go on a deep March Madness run. Since Dec. 22, the Torvik metrics system has the Jays as the fourth-best squad in the country. This team was hurt by injuries, and Ryan Kalkbrenner’s illness was such a big blow because he holds everything together in the frontcourt. The Jays are 13-5 with the 7-footer in the lineup and 0-3 without him.

It took some time for Creighton to figure certain things out with shot selection and balance offensively. Frankly, this team has several big-time players on its best day, with Baylor Scheierman, Arthur Kaluma, Trey Alexander and Ryan Nembhard. I think it took a period of understanding that passing on certain shots to create better ones is what needed to happen for this team to hit its top mark. What I love about this team, though, is that it defends, ranking 21st in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency. In the past, if McDermott had a team that wasn’t shooting the ball well, the Jays could be in for a long night. Not this team. Now, if the Jays hit a lull offensively, they are capable enough defensively to win those wars and find a way. To me, Kaluma is the most important piece. When he plays within himself and is hitting quality shots, he’s a very difficult matchup at 6-foot-7. Kaluma has totaled 34 points and 14 rebounds in the last two games, both of which were wins.

Katz: Injuries certainly played a role. You cannot underestimate Kalkbrenner’s injury and how that affected the team after the Maui Invitational. The Bluejays lost six in a row and then had a two-game skid in the Big East, but that was against Xavier and UConn on the road. This squad has plenty of talent and options with Nembhard, Alexander, Kaluma and Scheierman.

 The win over Xavier at home was a positive step forward for this team. Creighton didn’t shoot well in the first half (38%) but still held a 42-28 lead. The Bluejays shot 56% in the second half and outscored Xavier 42-39 for the W. Not shooting well and holding a 14-point lead is a strong indicator that Creighton can survive not relying on perimeter shooting. This team feels like a squad that could ultimately reach its potential in the NCAA Tournament after an erratic regular season. 

Is there another Big East team capable of making some noise in the conference tournament and the Big Dance?

Katz: Well, we just had four questions and didn’t mention UConn! The Huskies were once the favorite to win the league after rising to No. 2 in the country, but even though they have struggled since, there is still plenty of hope. 

Adama Sanogo could become a matchup nightmare in the NCAAs. Jordan Hawkins and Andre Jackson Jr., can still go off. Alex Karaban has had his moments, and so too has Donovan Clingan (remember he  was PK Invitational MVP). We’re going to learn a lot more about the Huskies in a few weeks when they have home games against Marquette, Seton Hall and Providence, and also go to Creighton. The Huskies will be a favored team in New York at MSG. And that could help propel them to a higher seed in the NCAAs. 

Fanta: Are the Huskies capable? Sure they are. They need to let Hawkins be the guy and give him the opportunity to get as many high-percentage looks as possible. They need Tristen Newton to build on his 23-point, four-assist performance against Xavier last week. That being said, I'm concerned that UConn wears down as the season goes on. The Huskies need to find a way to flip that late-February-into-March script this time around. 

I’ll take it a step further: The Big East has five NCAA Tournament teams — Xavier, Marquette, Providence, Creighton and Connecticut. Seton Hall is bubbly and could use wins this week over St. John’s and DePaul. But who could end up in a Big East Tournament semifinal and it wouldn’t surprise me? Villanova. 

The Wildcats are going to lose more in February because of a difficult schedule, but I just can’t see the Wildcats going down easy with Justin Moore, Caleb Daniels, Brandon Slater and Eric Dixon — guys that have won Big East championships and are comfortable on the biggest stage. They say experience matters. The Cats making a run in New York and trying to survive every day definitely feels like something that could happen. 

Andy Katz is a longtime college basketball writer, analyst and host. He can be seen on the Big Ten Network, as well as March Madness and NCAA.com, and he hosts the podcast "March Madness 365." Katz worked at ESPN for nearly two decades and, prior to that, in newspapers for nine years.

John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.

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