Big 12 preview: Kansas looks like a lock for 13th straight title
Sports Illustrated’s 2016–17 preview is guided by data from our College Basketball Projection System, a collaboration between economist Dan Hanner and SI’s Luke Winn and Jeremy Fuchs. We project teams on a player-by-player, lineup-based level and then simulate the season 10,000 times to generate our 1–351 national rankings and conference forecasts.
These are the model’s projections for the Big 12, including individual awards, the teams’ order of finish and (advanced and raw) stats for the top seven players in each school’s rotation.
Find more about how our projection system works here, and read all of our 2016–17 preview content here.
The Big Picture
If you’re looking for a tight conference championship race to follow this season, ignore the Big 12. Kansas has claimed at least a share of the league crown for 12 consecutive years, and there’s a good chance it will extend the streak to 13 this season. With a savvy veteran backcourt, a former top-25 recruit set to break out as a sophomore, a potential top-three pick in the 2017 NBA draft and a cast of talented role players filling out their rotation, the Jayhawks enter this season as the clear frontrunner in the conference. While teams such as West Virginia, Baylor and Texas should be in contention for NCAA tournament berths, Kansas may be the Big 12’s only realistic national title contender. The biggest source of intrigue beyond the Jayhawks’ ridiculous streak may be the introduction of three new coaches: Jamie Dixon at TCU, Brad Underwood at Oklahoma State and Chris Beard at Texas Tech.
Player of the year: Monte Morris, Iowa State
Morris battled a shoulder injury toward the end of his junior season that he said influenced his decision to return to school for 2016–17 instead of entering the draft, but he told Sports Illustrated’s Luke Winn at the Nike Skills Academy this summer that he “wasn’t in a rush” to jump to the pros after observing the success Denzel Valentine and Buddy Hield enjoyed in their respective senior campaigns at Michigan State and Oklahoma. If Morris performs anywhere near as well as either of those two players did in 2015–16 this season, he shouldn’t face serious competition for this honor. Morris has already proven he’s a skilled playmaker who minimizes mistakes, but with star forward Georges Niang moving on, Morris will need to become a more assertive scorer for the Cyclones as a senior.
Newcomer of the Year: Josh Jackson, Kansas
Jackson is the top-ranked prospect in a recruiting class that is being hailed as one of the best of the last decade. Unsurprisingly, he’s drawn comparisons to the last No. 1 RSCI prospect Kansas signed, current Minnesota Timberwolves forward Andrew Wiggins. Yet Jackson could make a bigger impact in his (likely) one season in Lawrence before being selected near the top of the 2017 draft. Jackson is an incredible athlete, a tenacious defender who works hard on both ends of the court and a shrewd distributor who excels making plays in transition. Perhaps Jackson’s most glaring weakness at this point is his jump shot, but that won’t prevent him from becoming one of Kansas’s top scoring options right away. We project the Detroit, Mich., native to lead the Jayhawks in points per game and rank among their top rebounders.
All-Conference Team & Sixth man
PG: Monte Morris, Iowa State
PG: Frank Mason, Kansas
PG: Jawun Evans, Oklahoma State
SF: Josh Jackson, Kansas
PF: Johnathan Motley, Baylor
6th man: Jordan Woodard, Oklahoma
Projected Order of Finish
| Conference Rank | Team | Proj. Conf. Record | ’15-16 Conf. Record |
| 1 | Kansas | 15–3 | 15–3 |
| 2 | West Virginia | 10–8 | 13–5 |
| 3 | Baylor | 10–8 | 10–8 |
| 4 | Texas | 10–8 | 11–7 |
| 5 | Iowa State | 9–9 | 10–8 |
| 6 | Oklahoma | 9–9 | 12–6 |
| 7 | Texas Tech | 9–9 | 9–9 |
| 8 | Oklahoma State | 6–12 | 3–15 |
| 9 | Kansas State | 6–12 | 5–13 |
| 10 | TCU | 6–12 | 2–16 |
The Skinny on Each Team
1. Kansas (15–3)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Josh Jackson | Fr | SF | 15.7 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 119.0 | 23% | 79% |
| Frank Mason | Sr | PG | 14.0 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 120.1 | 21% | 86% |
| Devonte' Graham | Jr | PG | 12.4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 123.2 | 18% | 81% |
| Carlton Bragg | So | PF | 12.3 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 113.8 | 22% | 69% |
| Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk | Jr | SG | 8.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 114.7 | 20% | 51% |
| Landen Lucas | Sr | C | 7.4 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 121.5 | 17% | 57% |
| Udoka Azubuike | Fr | C | 5.1 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 109.5 | 18% | 35% |
2. West Virginia (10–8)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Daxter Miles Jr. | Jr | SG | 12.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 112.8 | 20% | 67% |
| Tarik Phillip | Sr | PG | 11.6 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 107.2 | 24% | 66% |
| Jevon Carter | Jr | PG | 11.0 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 112.1 | 21% | 70% |
| Esa Ahmad | So | PF | 9.5 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 106.0 | 20% | 69% |
| Teyvon Myers | Sr | SG | 7.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 100.1 | 18% | 57% |
| Nathan Adrian | Sr | PF | 7.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 115.6 | 15% | 60% |
| Elijah Macon | Jr | PF | 6.9 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 104.0 | 22% | 42% |
3. Baylor (10–8)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Johnathan Motley | Jr | PF | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 114.9 | 25% | 60% |
| Al Freeman | Jr | SG | 13.0 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 117.3 | 19% | 77% |
| Manu Lecomte | Jr | PG | 11.8 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 111.1 | 22% | 69% |
| Terry Maston | Jr | PF | 11.0 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 110.1 | 23% | 55% |
| King McClure | So | SG | 7.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 119.6 | 17% | 48% |
| Jo Acuil | Jr | C | 7.6 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 104.2 | 21% | 48% |
| Ishmail Wainright | Sr | SF | 7.5 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 113.5 | 16% | 70% |
4. Texas (10–8)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Kerwin Roach Jr. | So | PG | 13.8 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 106.6 | 24% | 77% |
| Eric Davis | So | SG | 12.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 110.6 | 20% | 76% |
| Jarrett Allen | Fr | C | 9.9 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 108.8 | 21% | 61% |
| Andrew Jones | Fr | PG/SG | 8.6 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 106.7 | 20% | 63% |
| Shaquille Cleare | Sr | PF | 7.2 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 110.4 | 17% | 55% |
| Tevin Mack | So | SF | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 101.1 | 23% | 33% |
| Kendal Yancy-Harris | Sr | SG | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 110.6 | 17% | 42% |
5. Iowa St. (9–9)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Monte Morris | Sr | PG | 15.5 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 121.4 | 24% | 90% |
| Deonte Burton | Sr | SG/SF | 13.6 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 112.9 | 24% | 68% |
| Nazareth Mitrou-Long | Sr | SG | 11.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 105.0 | 20% | 70% |
| Matt Thomas | Sr | SG | 10.3 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 118.8 | 15% | 73% |
| Merrill Holden | Sr | PF | 7.7 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 101.3 | 17% | 60% |
| Darrell Bowie | Sr | SF | 7.3 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 98.2 | 23% | 45% |
| Nick Weiler-Babb | So | SG | 5.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 101.2 | 18% | 40% |
6. Oklahoma (9–9)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Jordan Woodard | Sr | PG | 15.5 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 115.8 | 23% | 85% |
| Christian James | So | SG/SF | 11.8 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 101.9 | 21% | 80% |
| Khadeem Lattin | Jr | PF | 10.3 | 7.4 | 0.9 | 110.3 | 20% | 73% |
| Rashard Odomes | So | SG | 10.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 97.5 | 20% | 70% |
| Kristian Doolittle | Fr | SF | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 105.4 | 17% | 55% |
| Dante Buford | So | PF | 6.4 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 103.5 | 19% | 48% |
| Kameron McGusty | Fr | SG | 6.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 104.3 | 20% | 40% |
7. Texas Tech (9–9)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Aaron Ross | Sr | PF | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 114.0 | 21% | 62% |
| Keenan Evans | Jr | PG | 9.8 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 105.4 | 21% | 73% |
| Justin Gray | Jr | SF | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 116.6 | 18% | 66% |
| Anthony Livingston | Sr | PF | 8.3 | 5.1 | 0.5 | 100.5 | 22% | 55% |
| Zach Smith | Jr | PF | 7.5 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 111.0 | 17% | 65% |
| Giovanni McLean | Sr | PG | 7.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 95.0 | 22% | 55% |
| Norense Odiase | Jr | PF | 5.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 101.7 | 24% | 35% |
8. Oklahoma St. (6–12)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Jawun Evans | So | PG | 16.2 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 112.9 | 26% | 85% |
| Phil Forte III | Sr | SG | 15.9 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 120.8 | 21% | 80% |
| Leyton Hammonds | Sr | SF | 10.3 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 104.0 | 20% | 65% |
| Jeffrey Carroll | Jr | SF | 9.2 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 105.7 | 19% | 58% |
| Cameron McGriff | Fr | SF | 6.6 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 102.0 | 18% | 49% |
| Tavarius Shine | Jr | SG/SF | 6.5 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 101.7 | 17% | 50% |
| Mitchell Solomon | Jr | C | 6.2 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 103.4 | 16% | 61% |
9. Kansas St. (6–12)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Wesley Iwundu | Sr | SF | 12.3 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 102.4 | 23% | 80% |
| Dean Wade | So | PF | 11.4 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 111.4 | 20% | 71% |
| D.J. Johnson | Sr | PF | 11.1 | 6.4 | 0.5 | 109.7 | 22% | 61% |
| Kamau Stokes | So | PG | 10.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 102.0 | 21% | 71% |
| Barry Brown | So | SG | 9.2 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 98.6 | 21% | 61% |
| Dante Williams | Fr | PF | 5.9 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 101.6 | 19% | 44% |
| Carlbe Ervin II | Sr | PG | 4.7 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 101.4 | 17% | 48% |
10. TCU (6–12)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Vladimir Brodziansky | Jr | PF | 10.1 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 110.2 | 21% | 60% |
| Malique Trent | Jr | PG/SG | 10.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 94.0 | 25% | 63% |
| Alex Robinson | Jr | PG | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 101.6 | 22% | 44% |
| Brandon Parrish | Sr | SG | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 101.9 | 17% | 80% |
| Kenrich Williams | Jr | SF | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 110.1 | 19% | 54% |
| Jaylen Fisher | Fr | PG | 6.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 102.0 | 19% | 56% |
| J.D. Miller | So | SF | 4.7 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 99.8 | 23% | 33% |