Big 12 Basketball: Replacing the conference's top stars
Perry Ellis, Buddy Hield and Georges Niang are three of the best players in the history of Big 12 basketball. Now that they’re gone, who will replace them?
Perry Ellis, Buddy Hield and Georges Niang combined to score 3,253 points in Big 12 Conference games the past four seasons. They finished as the top three scorers in the Big 12 last season and each one finished in the top five in 2014-15. All three were First Team All-Conference for each of the past two seasons.
It’s extremely rare that a conference like the Big 12 has players stick around like this. You’d be hard-pressed to find a better trio of players who were all the same age in Big 12 history. In the Power Five Conferences, players don’t generally stick around long enough to rack up the kind of accolades that Ellis, Hield and Niang did.
Now, they’re gone. Just like that. Iowa State has a void at the four spot that they haven’t had in four years. Niang was around for so long that Royce White was the last non-Niang starting power forward for the ‘Clones.
Ellis has been a rock in the post for the Jayhawks for each of the past three seasons. He went from playing Robin to Andrew Wiggins’ Batman in the 2013-14 season, to leading a very young and inexperienced team in 2014-15, to being the best player on one of the best teams in the country last season.
Hield won each of the past two Big 12 Player of the Year awards and has been the leading scorer for the Sooners ever since his freshman season ended with an injury.
All of these guys left major voids on their respective teams. Who’s around to replace them? Will they be up to the task? Let’s take a look.
Mar 17, 2016; Des Moines, IA, USA; Kansas Jayhawks forward Carlton Bragg Jr. (15) and Austin Peay Governors guard Khalil Davis (11) go after a loose ball during the first half in the first round of the 2016 NCAA Tournament at Wells Fargo Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports
Who replaces Perry Ellis?
Kansas without Perry Ellis seems a lot like peanut butter without jelly, spaghetti without meatballs, or autumn without football.
Yet somehow, Ellis will never play another game in a Kansas Jayhawks uniform. Ellis led the Jayhawks in scoring each of the past two seasons, but the three-year starter graduated last May.
Now, Carlton Bragg Jr. will slot into Ellis’ spot in the starting lineup. The former McDonald’s All-American was ranked as the 21st overall freshman last season, according to Rivals, and averaged 3.8 points and 2.5 rebounds in just under nine minutes per game last season off of the bench.
Fortunately for him, Bill Self runs the high-low offense. So as the starting four, he will get plenty of shot attempts and should be able to be a pretty big scorer in his sophomore season.
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As a matter of fact, the last time a Bill Self team didn’t have a big man as one of their top two scorers was seven years ago, during the 2009-10 season. But even then, their starting frontcourt, Cole Aldrich and Marcus Morris, averaged 12.8 and 11.3 points per game, respectively.
So obviously, Self generally relies heavily on post scorers.
Is Bragg up to the challenge?
Earlier this week, Luke Winn pegged Bragg as one of the most likely sophomore breakout players this season.
And according to Gary Bedore of kansascity.com, Bragg put on 26 pounds over the summer. If Bragg can use that muscle to bang in the post, that can add a whole other aspect to his game that will make him that much more difficult to guard.
Bragg already possesses a good touch from the perimeter. It was in a small sample size, but per hoop-math.com, he shot 44 percent from mid-range and of the seven three-pointers he attempted, he made four of them.
I see no reason why he won’t consistently be shooting three-pointers this season and if the Jayhawks spread the floor, he should get plenty of open looks off of the penetration of Frank Mason III and Devonte’ Graham.
Bragg runs the floor like crazy, and is probably a better rebounder than Ellis to be completely honest. As a matter of fact, his rebounding rate of 16 percent was fourth on the team behind Landen Lucas, Cheick Diallo, and Hunter Mickelson.
And let’s not forget the athleticism:
On the defensive end, Bragg figures to have a much bigger impact than Ellis did. At 6’9″, he is more suited to guard opposing fours in the post (not to mention his quickness allows for mobility) and his extremely long arms should lead to him contesting many shots at the rim.
Overall, I think Bragg elevates his scoring to 12-14 points per game, but honestly, it’s not unrealistic to think he may lead this Kansas team in scoring. He figures to start next to Lucas, but because Lucas isn’t a true post threat, Bragg could receive the majority of the touches.
In all seriousness, Josh Jackson still probably leads them in scoring, but I can see Bragg, Jackson, Mason, and Graham all finishing in the 12-14 points per game range.
Bragg won’t be Perry Ellis – it’s unfair to expect him to be – but he’ll certainly be one heck of a player.
Mar 19, 2016; Denver , CO, USA; Arkansas Little Rock Trojans forward Lis Shoshi (12) defends as Iowa State Cyclones guard Deonte Burton (30) drives in first half action of Iowa State vs Arkansas Little Rock during the second round of the 2016 NCAA Tournament at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Who replaces Georges Niang?
Georges Niang has been Iowa State’s starting power forward for every one of his four years in Ames. With 2,228 points scored in his career, Niang is the second-leading scorer in Cyclone history.
It’s tough to match production like that. Not to mention, Niang did a whole lot more than just score the basketball. Along with leading the team in scoring, he was second in assists, rebounds, and three-pointers made. He was an actual swiss-army knife on the court.
Alas, players come and go, and entering the starting lineup as the Cyclones’ new “swiss-army knife” is the 6’4″, 240 pound Deonte Burton.
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His height and weight is almost exactly what makes Burton so good. Burton is capable of playing the four, like Niang, and banging inside with big men because of his strength and 240 pound body.
At the same time, he’s a threat on the perimeter, and can stay in front of many guards because of his 6’4″ frame. As great as Niang was on the offensive end, the Cyclones will most likely be better off defensively with Burton in the starting lineup.
Burton actually led the team in defensive rating last season at 101.5. Not exactly an Anthony Davis-ian number, but for an Iowa State team that generally allows open look after open look on defense, it might as well be. It helps that he can guard positions one through four on the basketball court.
Offensively, Burton isn’t quite the threat that Niang was for four years. He did shoot 47 percent from three in his lone season at Iowa State, though he shot just 38 threes on the season.
Niang shot an other-worldly 76 percent at the rim last season and Burton wasn’t actually too far behind at 70 percent. However, the Cyclones as a team shot 72 percent at the rim, so perhaps head coach Steve Prohm’s offense was just really good at generating looks at the rim.
Burton will probably be putting up a ton of shots next year, so it’s not out of the question to see him averaging around 18 points per game. The ‘Clones will certainly lose a bit in the efficiency category, but as bad as they’ve been historically on the defensive side of the ball, they’ve been really good on the offensive side. There shouldn’t be too much cause for concern.
The one thing Burton definitely doesn’t do as well as Niang is distribute the ball. Niang was such a great roll man in pick-and-rolls because of his ability to whip the ball to the open three point shooter as soon as the defense crashed in on him. Many of Iowa State’s open three-pointers were thanks to Niang.
Not to mention all of the facilitating Niang did outside of the arc. I mean, we’re talking about a big man who was tenth in the Big 12 in assists. Iowa State liked to have him catch the ball well outside the arc, where there would be no ball pressure on him, and have him feed someone off of multiple off-ball screens.
These are things I’m almost positive Burton cannot do. And that’s where Iowa State is going to experience a drop-off.
The ‘Clones lost a lot more than just Niang last season. Abdel Nader and Jameel McKay are major losses as well. But if Burton can step up in Niang’s absence, the Cyclones could make another run at a Sweet 16.
Apr 2, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Oklahoma Sooners guard Christian James (3) and forward Khadeem Lattin (12) react on the bench during the second half against the Villanova Wildcats in the 2016 NCAA Men’s Division I Championship semi-final game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Who replaces Buddy Hield?
Full disclosure: Oklahoma losing Buddy Hield to graduation is probably the biggest loss in the country. And to make matters even worse, I’m not sure they have anyone that’s good enough to even come close to replacing him. I think they will experience a major drop-off as a team.This seems like something that should be obvious, and that I shouldn’t even have to point out.
Hield averaged 25 points per game last season on only 16 overall shot attempts. That’s good for a true shooting percentage of 66 percent. For comparison’s sake, Karl-Anthony Towns, the most efficient player on arguably the best team in college basketball history, had a true shooting percentage of 62 percent. Blake Griffin had a true shooting percentage of 65 percent during his junior season at Oklahoma.
So yeah, Buddy Hield was really good, and we’ve never really seen someone be so efficient with so many shot attempts. But I’m not here to tell you Hield is really good, since you probably know that already.
Instead, I’ll tell you about how they will really struggle this season without him. The Sooners’ starting five was so talented and experienced last season that they barely played their bench. Hield, Jordan Woodard, and Isaiah Cousins, Oklahoma’s three starting guards last season, combined to average over 98 minutes per game last season. That left just under 22 minutes per game for backups like Dante Buford, Dinjyl Walker, and Christian James.
Walker graduated, so that leaves Buford, James, and four-star freshman Kameron McGusty to pick up the slack.
Last season, James shot 50 percent from three on a limited number of attempts (34), and Buford shot a mediocre 32 percent. They were both relegated to being spot-up shooters in their limited amount of minutes, and neither fared well from anywhere else on the court (James shot 35 percent from inside the arc and Buford wasn’t much better at 36 percent).
So it would seem unlikely that either one of those two will do much to help re-gain Hield’s production. That leaves a lot of expectations on McGusty.
McGusty comes in at 51st on Rivals top 150 high school recruits, making him the highest rated Oklahoma prospect since Cameron Clark was ranked 34th in 2010.
It’s also notable that McGusty finished his high school career at the same high school that Hield attended. Heck, Lon Kruger may have recruited him for that reason specifically.
The bottom line is that Oklahoma has a major void to fill, and along with the departures of Cousins and starting big man Ryan Spangler, the expectations for the Sooners are extremely low this season. As a matter of fact, I would be pretty surprised if they even made the NCAA Tournament.
But hey, I’ve been wrong before, and I’ll continue to be wrong on occasion. Maybe McGusty turns some heads during his freshman season. Or maybe Buford and James make major leaps. The game isn’t played on paper, thankfully, so you never know what might happen. That’s why they play the games.