'Bear Bets': The Group Chat's thoughts on the opening rounds of March Madness
Bear Bets is back!
FOX Sports' digital gambling show returned this week to discuss the opening rounds of March Madness.
The Group Chat also reconvened, as Chris "The Bear" Fallica and Geoff Schwartz were joined by Sam Panayotovich and Will Hill to discuss the men's NCAA Tournament and which bets they like the most this week.
Let's get right into their bets!
EAST REGION
Which top-three seed is most likely to lose in the first weekend?
Hill: Illinois
"I like this Morehead State team. I like the matchup for them because they were the first team to punch their ticket two weeks ago. They've had two weeks of rest. I like fading these teams like Illinois that won their conference tournaments with three games in three days a few days ago. It takes a lot out of it. I certainly liked them plus the points."
Sammy P: Iowa State
"I have Drake knocking off Iowa State. I love that team. I love their efficiency. I love their ability to play both ways. My favorite thing to do in these tournaments is to short the teams that won conference tournaments."
What first-round upset do you have your eyes on?
Sammy P: UAB over San Diego State
"That San Diego State team I think is good. But you also have the illusion that, ‘Oh, they went to the title game last year.' Last year doesn't really matter."
Schwartz: Morehead State over Illinois
"Morehead State is really good on defense and can shoot 3s well. Those are the things I look at, along with turnover rate and if you can shoot foul shots, you can upset teams."
What other plays do you like in this region?
The Bear: Northwestern +2.5 vs. Florida Atlantic; South Dakota State +17 vs. Iowa State
"FAU, we talked about them throughout the year just not being the same team. We thought they would turn it on in the AAC Tournament, but that clearly didn't happen.
"I will take South Dakota State +17 as well, assuming that Iowa State will be in a lower-scoring game."
Schwartz: Drake to make Sweet 16 +650
"We just talked about Iowa State not getting to the Sweet 16. Drake could be that team, and this is more valuable than taking them on the money line."
WEST REGION
Which top-three seed is the most likely to lose in the first weekend?
The Bear: North Carolina
"That second-round game, whether it's against Mississippi State or Michigan State, is a dangerous game because UNC does not close games out well and doesn't turn you over. I think North Carolina is living on borrowed time."
Schwartz: Arizona
"Tommy Lloyd is 2-2 in the last two years as a top-two seed and 0-4 against the spread. I do like the addition of Caleb Love to this team; that's what they missed last season, but they just have long moments where they don't score."
Which first-round upset do you have your eyes on?
Hill: Charleston over Alabama
"Bama is going to keep everyone in it with their defense. I know they play well at the 3 and rim on offense, but if those 3s aren't falling like last year, anything can happen."
Sammy P: Charleston over Alabama
"Alabama is a red flag team because they don't get stops. You need to get stops in this tournament in order to advance to the second weekend."
Is there a long-shot Final Four team you like in this region?
Sammy P: Saint Mary's
"If Saint Mary's loses to Grand Canyon, I'll cry because I have Mary's in the Final Four. Anything can happen in this region. I've got Mary's over Baylor. This is my chaos region."
Hill: Mississippi State
"I think that things break open if they can beat North Carolina. I like its defense, athleticism, point guard and coach. Something different, you usually get a team out of nowhere in the Final Four."
The Bear: New Mexico
"New Mexico was an 11-seed who caught fire in the conference tournament. They drew a Clemson team in the first round that isn't very good. You potentially get Baylor in the second round. I think that the New Mexico-Baylor winner will be the team that has a really good chance to get to the Final Four."
SOUTH REGION
Which top-three seed is the most likely to lose in the first weekend?
The Bear: Houston
"Texas A&M can play an ugly game. Nebraska, with Fred Hoiberg, that team can score points. I think that second-round matchup for Houston is very dangerous."
Sammy P: None
"I don't think any of them do. That's a cop-out. But this is a region that I think is pretty chalky. I got all four top seeds in the Sweet 16."
Which possible first-round upset do you have your eyes on?
Schwartz: James Madison over Wisconsin
"People in Las Vegas are very aligned on James Madison in this game."
What possible long-shot plays do you like in this region?
The Bear: Texas Tech to make Final Four
"I love Texas Tech against North Carolina State. I think it's a team that defensively can slow Kentucky down a little bit and force Kentucky to play a little defense."
Sammy P: Colorado to make Final Four
"I've got Houston-UK in the Elite Eight. But let me share what somebody told me on Sunday. He said one of the first bets he made was for Colorado to make the Final Four at 125-to-1. I said, ‘You're crazy.' He said, ‘Yeah, it's still a good bet. They've got three NBA guys. You look at a team that's sort of getting healthy at the right time.' … You'd get Marquette early with Tyler Kolek a little banged up. It's not my bet, but it's from a guy I really respect."
MIDWEST REGION
Which top seed is the most likely to go down early?
The Bear: Tennessee
"Tennessee is the underachiever. If you look at Rick Barnes' last 18 tournament games, they're 3-14-1 and have made it out of the first weekend twice in 11 trips."
Which first-round upset are you looking at?
"Samford has six guys that shoot over 38% from the 3-point line. They can really score and if Kansas is hurt, they're not going to win that game."
Which other plays do you like in this region?
Sammy P: Creighton to make the Final Four
"I think this is the region of uncertainty. Creighton's range is insane, they can play very, very high or very, very low. But after losing last year's game in the Elite Eight in a heartbreaker, I like them to make it to the Final Four this year."
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