A-10 preview: VCU, Rhode Island & Dayton poised to battle for league crown
Sports Illustrated’s 2016–17 preview is guided by data from our College Basketball Projection System, a collaboration between economist Dan Hanner and SI’s Luke Winn and Jeremy Fuchs. We project teams on a player-by-player, lineup-based level and then simulate the season 10,000 times to generate our 1–351 national rankings and conference forecasts.
These are the model’s projections for the A-10, including individual awards, the teams’ order of finish and (advanced and raw) stats for the top seven players in each school’s rotation.
Find more about how our projection system works here, and read all of our 2016–17 preview content here.
Player of the Year: Jack Gibbs, Davidson
Gibbs finished fourth among multi-bid conference players in scoring last season, and we project him to be the top scorer in college basketball this year. If he beats out players from bigger teams and conferences, like Duke’s Grayson Allen and Iowa’s Peter Jok, expect Gibbs to be a lock for conference player of the year and in the conversation for national player of the year. You can also expect to hear a lot of Stephen Curry comparisons, even as Gibbs tries his best to keep them at bay.
Newcomer of the Year: Emile Blackman, Duquesne
Blackman arrives to Duquesne as part of the great diaspora from Niagara, which has lost 20 players to transfer since coach Chris Casey began his tenure in 2013. Last year, Blackman averaged 15.8 points in 33.4 minutes a game for the Purple Eagles, and he was the team’s emotional core. This season he projects as the Dukes’ leading scorer in part because of his history of high-volume (and decent-efficiency) shooting and in part because Duquesne is replacing its top four scorers from 2015–16.
All-Conference Team & Sixth Man
PG: Jaylen Adams, St. Bonaventure
PG: Jack Gibbs, Davidson
SG: Charles Cooke, Dayton
PF: T.J. Cline, Richmond
PF: Tyler Cavanaugh, George Washington
6th man: SG: EC Matthews, Rhode Island
Projected Order of Finish
| Conference Rank | Team | Proj. Conf. Record | ’15-16 Conf. Record |
| 1 | VCU | 13–5 | 14–4 |
| 2 | Rhode Island | 13–5 | 9–9 |
| 3 | Dayton | 13–5 | 14–4 |
| 4 | Davidson | 11–7 | 10–8 |
| 5 | Richmond | 10–8 | 7–11 |
| 6 | George Washington | 10–8 | 11–7 |
| 7 | St. Bonaventure | 9–9 | 14–4 |
| 8 | Saint Joseph's | 8–10 | 13–5 |
| 9 | La Salle | 8–10 | 4–14 |
| 10 | Massachusetts | 8–10 | 6–12 |
| 11 | Fordham | 7–11 | 8–10 |
| 12 | George Mason | 6–12 | 5–13 |
| 13 | Duquesne | 5–13 | 6–12 |
| 14 | Saint Louis | 5–13 | 5–13 |
1. VCU (13–5)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| JeQuan Lewis | Sr | PG | 13.1 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 112.2 | 23% | 78% |
| Justin Tillman | Jr | PF | 11.7 | 7.9 | 0.5 | 120.7 | 21% | 65% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | Sr | PF | 11.2 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 121.5 | 19% | 69% |
| De'Riante Jenkins | Fr | SF/SG | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 106.3 | 20% | 52% |
| Ahmed Hamdy-Mohamed | Jr | PF | 8.0 | 4.6 | 0.4 | 101.3 | 25% | 44% |
| Samir Doughty | Fr | SG | 6.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 99.4 | 19% | 47% |
| Jonathan Williams | Jr | PG | 5.7 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 102.1 | 19% | 47% |
2. Rhode Island (13–5)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| E.C. Matthews | Sr | SG | 15.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 109.2 | 24% | 79% |
| Jared Terrell | Jr | PG/SG | 13.9 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 109.2 | 22% | 85% |
| Hassan Martin | Sr | PF/C | 13.0 | 6.6 | 0.9 | 113.6 | 22% | 73% |
| Jarvis Garrett | Jr | PG | 12.1 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 108.4 | 22% | 82% |
| Kuran Iverson | Sr | SF/PF | 9.6 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 109.2 | 18% | 73% |
| Andre Berry | Jr | PF | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 114.6 | 14% | 27% |
| Stanford Robinson | Jr | SG | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 110.7 | 18% | 29% |
3. Dayton (13–5)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Charles Cooke | Sr | SG | 15.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 110.9 | 24% | 79% |
| Scoochie Smith | Sr | PG | 12.7 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 113.1 | 21% | 81% |
| Kendall Pollard | Sr | PF | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 102.6 | 23% | 68% |
| Kyle Davis | Sr | PG | 9.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 114.3 | 17% | 69% |
| Josh Cunningham | So | PF | 7.1 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 103.4 | 19% | 51% |
| Darrell Davis | Jr | SG | 6.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 100.8 | 19% | 47% |
| Xeyrius Williams | So | SF | 4.7 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 106.1 | 15% | 43% |
4. Davidson (11–7)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Jack Gibbs | Sr | PG | 23.6 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 112.2 | 34% | 87% |
| Peyton Aldridge | Jr | PF | 16.0 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 122.9 | 21% | 87% |
| Jordan Watkins | Jr | SG | 10.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 110.3 | 17% | 80% |
| Nathan Ekwu | Jr | PF | 6.2 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 113.5 | 17% | 55% |
| William Magarity | Jr | PF/C | 5.5 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 104.1 | 20% | 40% |
| Oskar Michelsen | Jr | SF | 4.9 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 112.8 | 14% | 45% |
| Rusty Reigel | Jr | SG | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 105.1 | 12% | 49% |
5. Richmond (10–8)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| T.J. Cline | Sr | PF | 19.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 116.6 | 29% | 80% |
| ShawnDre' Jones | Sr | PG | 15.3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 116.1 | 22% | 87% |
| Marshall Wood | Sr | PF | 10.0 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 110.8 | 17% | 65% |
| Khwan Fore | So | PG | 9.9 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 110.7 | 18% | 73% |
| Grant Golden | Fr | PF/C | 5.8 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 99.6 | 18% | 46% |
| De'Monte Buckingham | Fr | SG | 5.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 101.7 | 18% | 44% |
| Nick Sherod | Fr | SG | 5.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 101.7 | 18% | 44% |
6. George Washington (10–8)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Tyler Cavanaugh | Sr | PF | 16.7 | 7.7 | 1.3 | 113.8 | 25% | 79% |
| Yuta Watanabe | Jr | SF | 11.0 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 109.2 | 20% | 72% |
| Matthew Hart | Sr | SG | 10.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 114.5 | 18% | 64% |
| Jaren Sina | Jr | PG | 9.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 105.1 | 20% | 75% |
| Patrick Steeves | Jr | SF | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 100.7 | 21% | 49% |
| Kevin Marfo | Fr | PF | 7.0 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 97.8 | 20% | 51% |
| Jordan Roland | So | SG | 6.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 95.2 | 18% | 59% |
7. St. Bonaventure (9–9)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Jaylen Adams | Jr | PG | 17.6 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 121.8 | 23% | 94% |
| Matt Mobley | Jr | SG | 14.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 107.3 | 23% | 75% |
| Denzel Gregg | Sr | SF | 10.7 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 107.9 | 21% | 68% |
| David Andoh | Sr | PF | 8.9 | 5.1 | 0.6 | 99.3 | 23% | 55% |
| Chinonso Obokoh | Sr | C | 7.6 | 5.1 | 0.6 | 100.9 | 19% | 56% |
| Idris Taqqee | Jr | SG | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 113.8 | 13% | 68% |
| Courtney Stockard | Jr | SF | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 104.6 | 20% | 32% |
8. Saint Joseph’s (8–10)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| James Demery | Jr | SF | 14.1 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 106.6 | 21% | 86% |
| Shavar Newkirk | Jr | PG | 12.7 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 96.9 | 23% | 89% |
| Lamarr Kimble | So | PG | 11.9 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 105.1 | 22% | 80% |
| Charles Brown Jr. | Fr | SF | 6.9 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 95.8 | 20% | 50% |
| Chris Clover | So | SG | 6.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 99.2 | 19% | 45% |
| Javon Baumann | Sr | PF | 5.5 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 101.5 | 15% | 52% |
| Lorenzo Edwards | Fr | PF | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 94.1 | 18% | 40% |
9. La Salle (8–10)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Jordan Price | Sr | SG | 19.6 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 102.8 | 30% | 91% |
| Cleon Roberts | Sr | SF | 12.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 107.0 | 19% | 90% |
| Johnnie Shuler | Jr | PG | 7.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 100.3 | 18% | 65% |
| Tony Washington | Jr | PF/C | 7.1 | 6.3 | 0.7 | 110.2 | 15% | 62% |
| Demetrius Henry | Jr | FC | 6.2 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 103.5 | 19% | 43% |
| Yevgen Sakhniuk | Jr | SF/PF | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 102.9 | 22% | 35% |
| Amar Stukes | Jr | PG | 4.4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 98.6 | 15% | 56% |
10. Massachusetts (8–10)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Donte Clark | Jr | SG | 17.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 106.9 | 26% | 82% |
| DeJon Jarreau | Fr | PG | 9.6 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 101.6 | 19% | 72% |
| Rashaan Holloway | So | PF/C | 9.3 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 98.5 | 25% | 51% |
| Seth Berger | Jr | SF/PF | 8.7 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 108.2 | 16% | 67% |
| Zach Lewis | Jr | SG | 8.6 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 100.9 | 22% | 51% |
| LuWane Pipkins | Fr | PG | 5.5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 101.5 | 19% | 42% |
| Zach Coleman | Jr | SF/PF | 4.8 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 97.7 | 18% | 47% |
11. Fordham (7–11)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Javontae Hawkins | Sr | SG | 12.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 107.0 | 25% | 66% |
| Christian Sengfelder | Jr | PF | 11.8 | 6.0 | 1.1 | 115.0 | 18% | 78% |
| Joseph Chartouny | So | PG | 11.0 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 108.4 | 23% | 77% |
| Antwoine Anderson | Jr | PG | 7.9 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 101.8 | 22% | 54% |
| David Pekarek | So | SF | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 96.9 | 19% | 50% |
| Prokop Slanina | Jr | C | 5.6 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 102.9 | 19% | 40% |
| Will Tavares | Jr | SG | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 102.9 | 19% | 35% |
12. George Mason (6–12)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Otis Livingston II | So | PG | 12.3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 105.4 | 21% | 81% |
| Marquise Moore | Sr | PG | 11.5 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 101.1 | 23% | 75% |
| Jaire Grayer | So | SG | 10.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 100.2 | 20% | 69% |
| Jalen Jenkins | Sr | SF/PF | 8.5 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 105.4 | 22% | 56% |
| DeAndre Abram | So | SF | 7.6 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 101.3 | 20% | 51% |
| A.J. Wilson | Fr | SF | 5.4 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 99.8 | 19% | 40% |
| Danny Dixon | So | PF | 4.5 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 100.3 | 15% | 50% |
13. Duquesne (5–13)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Emile Blackman | Sr | SG | 16.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 104.0 | 23% | 88% |
| Kale Abrahamson | Sr | SF | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 105.8 | 21% | 70% |
| Eric James | Jr | SF | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 106.6 | 22% | 73% |
| Darius Lewis | Sr | C | 7.5 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 103.5 | 19% | 53% |
| Jordan Robinson | Jr | C | 6.7 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 108.3 | 21% | 41% |
| Tarin Smith | So | PG | 6.6 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 99.4 | 16% | 55% |
| Josh Steel | So | SG/PG | 5.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 106.8 | 16% | 45% |
14. Saint Louis (5–13)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Mike Crawford | Sr | SG | 15.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 105.8 | 21% | 87% |
| Jermaine Bishop | So | PG | 14.3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 99.5 | 25% | 79% |
| Davell Roby | Jr | SG | 10.8 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 101.3 | 20% | 75% |
| Reggie Agbeko | Sr | PF | 8.7 | 7.2 | 0.4 | 102.5 | 17% | 69% |
| Jalen Johnson | Fr | SF | 6.8 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 98.9 | 19% | 48% |
| Austin Gillmann | Jr | C | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 103.2 | 15% | 43% |
| Zeke Moore | Fr | SF | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 96.2 | 19% | 32% |