2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Projections: Ohio State Gets a Bump, Texas Drops

Selection Sunday is days away, and the men's NCAA tournament bracket picture is becoming increasingly clearer.

And part of that is because the list of teams with auto-bids is filling out. Furman, which had not been part of the field previously, enters as a No. 15 seed with the Southern Conference automatic bid. Troy assured its place in the field, is still is a 14-seed and likely will remain there.

Texas and Ohio State, however, are in interesting spots and moving a bit, according to FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy. The Longhorns — who ended the regular season losing four of five — dropped from the last spot among the No. 11 seeds to the First Four. The Buckeyes finished the regular season strong with a three-game win streak, and ahead of the Big Ten tournament, they're up to the No. 10 seeds, bumping Missouri down to the 11-seeds.

So as conference tournaments get underway and bubble teams look to earn their NCAA tournament spots, here's a look at DeCourcy's latest seed projections for the men's bracket.

No. 1 seeds

1. Duke
2. Michigan
3. Arizona
4. Florida

No. 2 seeds

5. UConn
6. Houston
7. Illinois
8. Michigan State

No. 3 seeds

9. Iowa State
10. Alabama
11. Nebraska
12. Gonzaga

No. 4 seeds

13. Virginia
14. Purdue
15. Kansas
16. Texas Tech

No. 5 seeds

17. Arkansas
18. Vanderbilt
19. St. John's
20. North Carolina

No. 6 seeds

21. Louisville
22. Tennessee
23. Wisconsin
24. BYU

No. 7 seeds

25. Villanova
26. Kentucky
27. Saint Mary's
28. Georgia

No. 8 seeds

29. Miami Hurricanes
30. Utah State
31. Saint Louis
32. UCLA

No. 9 seeds

33. Miami RedHawks
34. Clemson
35. TCU
36. Iowa

No. 10 seeds

37. Texas A&M
38. Ohio State
39. UCF
40. NC State

No. 11 seeds

41. Santa Clara
42. Missouri
43. Texas vs. 44. VCU
45. SMU vs. 46. New Mexico

No. 12 seeds

47. South Florida
48. Yale
49. Stephen F. Austin
50. High Point

No. 13 seeds

51. Liberty
52. Northern Iowa
53. Utah Valley
54. Hofstra

No. 14 seeds

55. UC Irvine
56. North Dakota State
57. Troy
58. Portland State

No. 15 seeds

59. Wright State
60. Merrimack
61. Tennessee State
62. Furman

No. 16 seeds

63. Queens
64. LIU
65. Howard
66. UMBC
67. Bethune-Cookman
68. Boston U

And it’s never too early to check in on the bubble.

According to DeCourcy's seed list, Indiana, Auburn, Virginia Tech and San Diego State are the first four teams out of the tournament, while Cal, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State and Seton Hall are the next four out.

Selection Sunday is days away, and this list will inevitably evolve. For now, DeCourcy’s latest seed list offers a clear snapshot of who’s rising, who’s falling and which programs are already building the résumés they’ll need when March Madness arrives.