2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Projections: Michigan, BYU Rising; Iowa State Slides

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There are just three remaining undefeated teams in Division I men's college basketball — No. 1 Arizona (17-0), Nebraska (17-0) and Miami (Ohio) (18-0) — at the midway point of the 2025-26 season. 

That said, not all of them are at the top of FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy's latest bracket. The Wildcats and Cornhuskers kept their No. 1 seeds, while the RedHawks remained a No. 9 seed from earlier this week.

With a loaded week on deck, DeCourcy is here to share his latest NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament projections.

Here's where his projected bracket stands on Jan. 16.

EAST REGION

SOUTH REGION

MIDWEST REGION

WEST REGION

And it’s never too early to check in on the bubble.

According to DeCourcy's projections, Texas A&M, Auburn, Oklahoma State and New Mexico are the last four teams in the tournament, while Indiana, Virginia Tech, UCLA and Ohio State are the first four out.

As for conference representation, the SEC leads the way with 10 teams in DeCourcy's latest tournament projections, followed by the ACC with nine teams, the Big Ten and Big 12 with eight teams and the Big East with four teams. The West Coast, Atlantic 10 and Mountain West conferences have two teams each.

Selection Sunday is less than two months away, and these projections will inevitably evolve. But for now, DeCourcy’s latest bracket forecast offers a clear snapshot of who’s rising, who’s falling, and which programs are already building the résumés they’ll need when March arrives.

Michael DeCourcy covers college basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on NCAA Tournament bracket projections. He has appeared on FOX Sports college basketball game broadcasts, while also serving as a college basketball studio analyst with Big Ten Network. He has been covering college basketball for nearly three decades at the Sporting News. You can follow him at @tsnmike.

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