2023 March Madness odds: Bettor cashes on FAU, but sportsbooks fare well

By Patrick Everson
Published

If you’re betting or bracketing on March Madness, chances are you’re not making any money from either venture. The Final Four features three teams that have never been this far previously.

Not only are there no No. 1 seeds left, there are also zero second and third seeds among the remaining four on the floor. Unfortunately for most bettors, that means this has been a banner NCAA Men's Tournament for oddsmakers.

[RELATED: Elite Eight highlights]

But at least one customer got over quite large with Florida Atlantic. Let’s check on that and more as we recap the weekend that was in March Madness odds.

What a Hoot

On Selection Sunday, FAU was tabbed the No. 9 seed in the East Region. The Owls certainly weren’t expected to emerge from a quadrant of the bracket that included No. 1 seed Purdue and No. 2 seed Marquette, among other stout squads.

But Purdue historically tumbled in the first round to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson, while Marquette got bounced in the second round by No. 7 seed Michigan State. The bracket had a void that FAU was more than happy to fill.

On Saturday, the Owls claimed the East Region title with a 79-76 victory over No. 3 seed Kansas State. A prescient bettor made a boatload of money from The SuperBook. Back in December, the customer put $500 on FAU to reach the Final Four, at +40,000. For that decision, the bettor netted $200,000.

"I’d say once FAU made the Sweet 16, we almost didn’t even want to bring up that bet," SuperBook senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon said. "But the risk guys knew that was out there, which helped shape how we booked the Owls’ next two games."

Degnon said The SuperBook was able to mitigate the damage to a degree in FAU’s Sweet 16 win vs. Tennessee and Elite Eight win over Kansas State. Oddsmakers made the Vols and Wildcats as enticing as was reasonably possible, and The SuperBook did take plenty of Tennessee and K-State tickets and cash.

But it only slightly softened the blow of that massive FAU payout.

"It was bananas," Degnon said.

At WynnBet, senior trader Motoi Pearson said the book got dented a bit by FAU winning the East, but he’d be fine with the Owls just taking it all the way at this point.

"Respected bettors we've seen have been playing FAU throughout the tournament," Pearson said. "Public money hasn't really been on FAU, and although we took a hit on the Owls to win their region, our outcome for them to win the championship would be great."

Talking Baseball?

As Pearson noted, public/recreational bettors weren’t on FAU at all. Nor did they project two No. 5 seeds — San Diego State and Miami — reaching the Final Four. UConn had the brand recognition and talent to get some attention from the betting masses.

But still, after two weekends of March Madness, it’s been mostly a one-way flood of cash into sportsbook coffers.

"The books have continued writing the script for this year’s tournament, with a very bookmaker-friendly set of results in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight," BetMGM vice president of trading Jason Scott said. "The two UConn games fell the way of our customers, as did the two late games Friday (Creighton and Texas wins). But Florida Atlantic and San Diego State, twice each, were four remarkable results for the book.

"Bettors have had enough college basketball and are ready for Opening Day."

If so, then those bettors can look forward to MLB’s 15-game opening slate on Thursday.

Wins and Losses at WynnBet

Pearson noted at least a little give-and-take between oddsmakers and bettors over the past four days.

"Gonzaga over UCLA and FAU over Kansas State were wonderful for the book," he said. "San Diego State over Alabama outright and basically any game Connecticut has won have been bad for the book."

And UConn hasn’t just won its games. The Huskies have crushed all comers so far, winning all four NCAA tourney games by at least 15 points. So UConn has easily covered the spread each game, too.

In Saturday’s West Region final, the Huskies were 2.5-point favorites and steamrolled No. 3 seed Gonzaga 82-54. Three of UConn’s four tourney wins have been by 23 points or more.

Still, WynnBet had no issue absorbing those decisions when compared with the gains of pretty much the rest of the tournament. Pearson noted that Massachusetts launching mobile betting this month has been a huge boon, too.

"The handle has been fantastic in Massachusetts since we got mobile there," he said, before noting all 10 jurisdictions WynnBet operates in have done well for March Madness. "Overall, it has been solid. We've seen the good, the bad and the unimaginable, but we're in the black up to this point."

No. 1s All Done

Friday night is what really made the second weekend what it was for the bookmakers. Almost all season, Houston was the favorite in March Madness championship odds. Only in the past week did Alabama move atop the NCAA tourney odds board, and even then was just barely ahead of Houston.

Then the Crimson Tide and Cougars — both No. 1 seeds, of course — bowed out almost simultaneously in the Sweet 16. San Diego State dropped overall No. 1 seed Alabama 71-64, while Miami dumped Houston 89-75, killing off a handful of massive Mattress Mack bets in the process.

"The higher seeds falling have been great for the book, killing all the parlays," The SuperBook’s Degnon said. "Houston and ‘Bama going down on the same day was good."

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

One DraftKings customer has rung up a few big scores over the first two weekends of the NCAA Tournament. Last week, the bettor cleared $1.1 million in profit across three six-figure wagers.

On Saturday, the bettor had two bets on Florida Atlantic: $275,000 at +2 (-110), and $312,500 at +2 (-125). When the Owls finished off K-State 79-76, the customer profited $500,000 off of $587,500 worth of wagers.

At Caesars Sports, one customer got quite fortunate in Texas’ loss to Miami on Sunday. The Longhorns closed as 3.5-point favorites, but the bettor put $300,000 on an alternate spread of Texas +7.5 (-604).

That meant all the Longhorns had to do was not lose by more than seven points. And Texas led by 10 midway through the second half. But the Longhorns then collapsed and Miami won 88-81, providing that bettor the sweat of a lifetime (the Hurricanes missed a free throw with five seconds to go).

For that sweat, the customer profited $49,668.87. Quite a way to get a 16.6% return on investment. Here’s hoping you didn’t have to endure sweats such as that over the weekend.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

Top gambling stories from FOX Sports

Play FOX Super 6 every week for your chance to win thousands of dollars every week. Just download the Super 6 app and make your picks today!